MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks for Phillies vs. Astros (Sunday, April 30)
Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Castellanos #8 of the Philadelphia Phillies runs to third base against the Seattle Mariners at Citizens Bank Park on April 27, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
- The Astros host the Phillies for Sunday Night Baseball in a World Series rematch.
- Both teams have started slowly in 2023, but there is betting value tonight as our MLB analyst has put together a same game parlay.
- Find Nick Shlain's parlay picks and analysis for Phillies vs. Astros below.
Phillies vs. Astros Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+128 | 9 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -156 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -152 | 9 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +130 |
Typically a World Series rematch would be highly anticipated, but both of these teams have gotten off to uneven starts in the 2023 season. It might be more understandable for the Phillies to be 15-13, tied for third place in the competitive National League East, entering play Sunday given all the injuries they're dealing with. The Phillies are missing superstar Bryce Harper and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, of course.
The Astros, at 14-13 and second place in the American League West entering Sunday, are more surprising given the composition of their team. Who will get the job done when the lights are bright on Sunday night in Houston?
The Parlay (+477):
- Bailey Falter Under 4.5 Strikeouts
- Nick Castellanos 2+ Total Bases
- Astros Moneyline
Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs. Astros
Bailey Falter Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Falter struck out seven batters in his last start against the Seattle Mariners, but generally he's not a big time strikeout pitcher. Falter hasn't struck out more than four batters in any of his other starts this season. He has a 17% Strikeout Rate this year and his Strikeout Rate is just 19% going back to the beginning of last year. The Astros lineup doesn't strike out much at all. Houston's projected lineup has a combined 16% Strikeout Rate against left-handed pitching this year. We're going with an under to start off the same game parlay here.
Nick Castellanos 2+ Total Bases
Astros starter Jose Urquidy has reverse splits when it comes to power prevention. This year he's allowed a .210 ISO to right-handed hitters, and going back to the start of last season, he's allowed a .203 ISO to right-handed hitters. Castellanos has a .195 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and has been crushing the ball over the last two weeks — since April 16th, he's hitting .365 with a .615 slugging percentage. I like taking his total bases here so he can cover this leg of the parlay with a couple of singles or just one double.
Astros Moneyline
While the Astros don't necessarily have the starting pitching advantage here, the lack of strikeouts in their lineup certainly gives them the edge offensively. Philadelphia's lineup has a combined 26% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this year. Philadelphia also has one of the worst bullpens in the league with a 4.89 ERA, but Houston has one of the best bullpens in all of baseball with a 2.96 ERA. Houston is also at home, so we have to give them the edge there. Getting the Astros without having to take the run line to complete our same game parlay is nice value here.
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