Phillies vs Cardinals Odds & Pick: The F5 Bet to Make

Here's everything you need to know about Phillies vs Cardinals on Wednesday, April 10 — including odds and a prediction.

Phillies vs Cardinals odds have Philadelphia as a -126 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at eight or 8.5, depending on the book. I am looking into the first five-innings (F5) market for this matchup on Tuesday.

Let's dive into which side of the F5 Total I like as I make a Phillies vs Cardinals pick.

Right-hander Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia and could be a good fade candidate. After making a push for the NL Cy Young in 2022, Nola has regressed mightily.

In 2023, he posted a 4.46 ERA over 32 starts. That lack of success has continued into the early portion of this season as Nola owns a fade-worthy 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in his first two starts.

The right-hander's underlying metrics suggest that positive regression may be difficult to come by moving forward. Entering this matchup, Nola ranks in the 31st percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Whiff% and K%.

The good news for Philly is that St. Louis is also handing the ball to a fade-worthy pitcher in right-hander Lance Lynn. He struggled mightily in 2023 by posting a 5.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through 32 starts.

2024 has not gone much better as he has posted a 4.15 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through his first two starts. Like Nola, Lynn's underlying metrics this season suggest that positive regression may be difficult to come by.

Lynn currently ranks in 38th percentile or lower in xERA, Average Exit Velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. This lack of success could continue against the Phillies, considering that, in his lone start against Philadelphia over the past decade, Lynn allowed five runs on 10 hits in under six innings of work.

There were nine total runs scored across the first five innings in that game, and I believe we will see a similar result on Wednesday.

We are catching a low total in the F5 market because neither team has been particularly explosive offensively. However, both lineups have also not performed poorly as each team hovers around the league average in most hitting categories.

I have already highlighted why I believe each starting pitcher is worth fading, but the reason I want to look at the F5 Total instead of the full-game total is that both bullpens have looked impressive thus far. Entering this matchup, both relief staffs rank in the top six of the league in xFIP.

Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-114 at FanDuel · Play to -105)