Phillies vs Diamondbacks Player Props | NLCS Game 3 Odds, Picks for Ranger Suarez, Ketel Marte (Thursday, October 19)
Via Rich von Biberstein/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) reacts after getting relieved during game 1 of the NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves on October 7th, 2023 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
The Phillies rode their home crowd in Philadelphia as they dominated the first two games of the NLCS thanks to outstanding starting pitching and the long ball. They outscored the Diamondbacks 15-3 to take a 2-0 lead.
The series now shifts to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks will look to get back in the series.
Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies, and his strikeout line looks rather favorable. Brandon Pfaaldt will oppose him and will be tasked with slowing down the hot Phillies offense. Ketel Marte and the Arizona hitters will look to provide some run support for Pfaaldt.
Find my MLB player prop picks for Game 3 of the NLCS between the Phillies and Diamondbacks below.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 3 Props
Ranger Suarez Over 2.5 Ks
-165 at BetMGM
Ranger Suarez recorded at least three strikeouts in his first 23 starts this season, but the streak came to an end when he struck out just two against the Braves in his last start. Suarez was outstanding in the NLDS, posting a 1.04 ERA in 8 2/3 innings. He struck out just six in those two starts, but he hit this line in Game 1. I am buying low on him here.
The Diamondbacks are not a high-strikeout team, but Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola combined for 15 strikeouts in the first two games in this series. Suarez is not the strikeout pitcher those two are, but he did average nearly a strikeout per inning with 119 in 125 innings in the regular season. He also easily hit this line in two starts against the Diamondbacks this season by striking out five and seven batters in the two starts.
Suarez has averaged 5.2 strikeouts per start this season, as well as over his last 10 starts. Focusing on his last 10 starts, he has pitched five innings in seven of those starts and went 4 2/3 innings in another. If Suarez pitches five innings in this one, I feel great about his chances of striking out three. He could offer some value as well if you take him for strikeouts in DraftKings' same-game parlay.
Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 Hits Allowed
-125 at DraftKings
Like Suarez, Brandon Pfaaldt saw a streak come to an end in his last start. He had allowed four hits in seven consecutive starts, including at least six in five of those starts. However, against the Dodgers, he allowed just two in 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers just could not get going in the NLDS, but now he has to deal with a hot Phillies lineup.
The Phillies ranked 10th in wRC+ during the regular season. They have a .284 team batting average and .940 team OPS in the postseason. The Phillies have not seen Pfaaldt yet in his young career, but they could get four hits in one inning if their bats get rolling. However, they may have to get to him early.
Pfaaldt's outs recorded line is 11.5, which means the oddsmakers are projecting that he will pitch four innings. In an ideal world for manager Torey Lovullo, Pfaaldt will pitch five innings or more. They hope to extend this series to Game 5, which would mean playing three days in a row. They will not have Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly available until Game 5, so saving some bullpen arms could prove to be extremely valuable later in this series.
Pfaaldt will need to pitch well to work deeper into the game. Four hits in five or six innings would be a quality start for him. He has hit this line in 16 of 21 starts this season and can hit this line tonight whether he pitches well and goes deeper into the game or struggles early.
Pick:Brandon Pfaaldt Over 3.5 Hits Allowed
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
-155 at DraftKings
Ketel Marte is playing in the postseason for just the second time in his career. Just like 2017, he is excelling on the big stage. This postseason, Marte has a hit in each of the seven games he has played while hitting .333, which is slightly below his impressive .362 career postseason average.
Marte has cleared this line with three multi-hit games in his past four. He has scored a run in four games this postseason while driving in a run in three games. Overall, he has hit this line in six of seven postseason games, and he also hit this line at a 60% clip at Chase Field during the regular season.
Additionally, Marte has enjoyed a ton of success against Ranger Suarez in his career. He is 6-for-15 (.400) with a run batted in against the Phillies left-hander. That should not be a surprise considering that he slashed .313/.382/.497 against left-handers this season. He also hit .303 with an .888 OPS this season at home.
Marte has a favorable matchup tonight and will be in his friendly home conditions as well. Additionally, batting second will give him at least four, if not five, opportunities to hit this line. I expect him to stay hot and cash this combo once again tonight.
Pick: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
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