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Phillies vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Surging Philly on the Road (Thursday, June 16)

Phillies vs. Nationals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Surging Philly on the Road (Thursday, June 16) article feature image
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Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Castellanos (left) and Bryce Harper (right).

  • The Phillies are road favorites on Thursday against the Nationals.
  • The Phillies are surging and have ace Zack Wheeler on the mound, but are they overvalued in this spot?
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Phillies vs. Nationals Odds

Phillies Odds -200
Nationals Odds +170
Over/Under 9.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Philadelphia Phillies won again Wednesday night as they defeated the Miami Marlins 3-1. Philadelphia is now 11-2 in the month of June and 10-2 under new manager Rob Thompson.

The Phillies are now above .500 at 32-31 but still trail the National League East division-leading New York Mets by eight and a half games entering play Thursday. The Washington Nationals, on the other hand, have lost four in a row and sit at 23-42 overall on the season, 18.5 games behind the Mets in the division.

Who will emerge victorious in this interdivisional matchup?

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Can the Phillies Keep Rolling Against Corbin?

Right off the bat, I think we can say it’s pretty unlikely Nationals starter Patrick Corbin will get the job done tonight against the Phillies’ offense. Corbin has a 6.65 ERA on the season and has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts. He’s also allowed eight home runs in those six starts.

Phillies hitters Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos have demolished left-handed pitching this season as each have ISOs above .200 against southpaws this season. Corbin has also allowed a .240 ISO to right-handed batters on the year. Nationals Park is one of the better hitting ballparks in the league, and there should be good hitting weather with the forecast expected to be warm and humid with the wind gently blowing out.


Can the Nationals Do Damage Against Wheeler?

The Nationals offense will have its work cut out for them tonight going up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has continued to pitch well consistently and establish himself as one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball over the last few seasons.

He has a 2.84 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 29% K%, 5% BB%, and 46% Ground Ball Percentage this year. He’s been outstanding lately as in his last five starts, he’s completed at least six innings, struck out at least seven batters, and allowed no more than two earned runs in each outing.

The Nationals lineup does have some power as Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. Wheeler hasn’t faced the Nationals yet this year, but he had a 4.42 ERA in six starts against Washington last year.

Phillies-Nationals Pick

I think the Phillies are priced efficiently at -200 on the moneyline here. Philadelphia should have the advantage on the mound and at the plate in this matchup, though they are on the road at Washington. Still, I expect the Phillies to continue their winning ways of late, and with Wheeler on the mound, it’s safe to take them on the run line -1.5 (-110, BetRivers).

The Phillies offense should take care of business against Corbin, and with Wheeler pitching deep into the game, the Philadelphia bullpen should have only a minimal impact.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-110)

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