Phillies vs Pirates Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Sunday, July 30

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Sunday, July 30 article feature image

Via Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies bats against the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park on July 24, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds

Sunday, July 30
1:35 p.m. ET
Phillies Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105/ -115
Pirates Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105/ -115
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Cristopher Sanchez, a 26-year-old lefty, has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies this season with an ERA of 2.98 across 42 and 1/3 IP. He will take on veteran lefty Rich Hill (4.82 ERA, 114 IP) for the Pirates in Sunday's rubber match as a -144 favorite.

Find a betting preview, pick and prediction below for Phillies vs. Pirates on Sunday, July 30.

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Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sanchez is enjoying by far the best results of any season in his young MLB career. Sanchez put up a 5.63 ERA in 2022 and a 4.97 ERA in 2021.

The greatest improvement has come with his Walk Rate, which is now in the 99th percentile of major leaguers and is more in line with his strength entering the league, his command. Sanchez has thrown his changeup 10% more this season and his slider 2% more, which has placed less reliance upon his poorly rated sinker.

Batters own an xSLG of .358 versus his changeup this season, which is by far the best mark of any of his three pitches. Opponents have also hit to an average of just .140 versus his changeup.

Across all pitches, Sanchez owns an xSLG rate of .431 with a 41.8% Hard-Hit Rate. Sanchez has pitched to a 3.94 xFIP and a solid xFIP of 3.33 across 42 and 1/3 innings. He owns a Stuff+ of 81 with a Location+ of 103.

Sanchez should be a slightly better-than-average starting option in the season's final third with an ERA right around 4.00.

At the plate, Philadelphia has been a middle-of-the-pack team versus left-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 100.

Pittsburgh Pirates

At age 43, Rich Hill's season has been commendable even if the results have been well worse than the league average. He's thrown a six-pitch mix at various velocities, doing everything possible to eat innings for a middling Pirates side despite being at a disadvantage with no velocity in his arsenal.

Hill owns an xERA of 5.60 this season, with an xBA of .282 and a Strikeout Rate of just 19.1%.

When Hill's stuff has been in the zone, it has been a problem. Batters own a Line Drive Rate of 31% on pitches in the zone versus Hill this season, which is the highest mark in the league among qualified starters this season.

Batters have chased just 24.7% of pitches and have whiffed 18.5% of the time. While Hill's pitch mix rates somewhat reasonably, without high velocity to gear up for, it becomes easier for batters to sit on other pitches and make solid contact.

Hill owns a 6.12 ERA across 25 innings in July, and it is hard to see where he can find drastic improvements at this point.

As the Pirates' injuries have mounted and young bats receive time to develop at the big-league level, the offense has gone stagnant. Over the last 30 days, Pittsburgh has hit to a 29th-ranked wRC+ of 78.

Phillies vs. Pirates Betting Pick

The Phillies have hit to notably better splits versus lefties than the Pirates, and Philly has been in far better form of late.

With the injuries suffered to key Pirates pieces, the Phillies lineup offers a considerable edge, and Hill is no doubt getting the tougher task.

Sanchez is due for some negative regression, but he still deserves to be viewed as the far better of the two starters in this matchup.

The Phillies deserve to be a bigger favorite than -144 in this spot, and assuming they do not rest several key pieces, expect them to be a larger favorite by the opening pitch. Betting them at anything better than -150 is worthy of a play.

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