MLB Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Reds: Kyle Gibson to Shut Down Cincinnati (Aug. 16)

MLB Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Reds: Kyle Gibson to Shut Down Cincinnati (Aug. 16) article feature image

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Gibson (Phillies)

  • The Reds and Phillies go head-to-head on Tuesday in Cincinnati.
  • Philadelphia is sending Kyle Gibson to the hill while Cincinnati will start the inexperienced T.J. Zeuch.
  • D.J. James breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet.

Phillies vs. Reds Odds

Phillies Odds-190
Reds Odds+158
Over/Under9.5 (+105 / -125)
Time6:40 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Kyle Gibson has had an up-and-down 2022 campaign for the Phillies. His two starts in August have been impressive, though, as he holds a 1.93 ERA against both the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins.

He'll face another team with a terrible offense on Tuesday — the Cincinnati Reds. In August, the Reds only have a team wRC+ of 75 against right-handed pitchers.

Cincinnati will start T.J. Zeuch, who honestly does not have much experience at the MLB level.

That said, while the Phillies are usually more than capable on the offensive end, they only have a team wRC+ of 94 this month off of righties.

Regardless, Zeuch has yet to show he can compete with the big boys, so it is incredibly hard to handicap his end of the game.

Cincinnati’s offense not showing up when facing a decent starting pitcher is far more predictable. Taking the Reds team total under is the right call — even if they are playing at home in this game.

How Can Phillies' Gibson Attack Opponent?

Gibson’s saving grace is that he ranks in the top-half of the MLB in Hard Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity. Much of this is due to his fastball only being about 90 mph on average, and he throws fastballs more than half of the time.

His 4.29 ERA is nothing to write home about, and his xERA is similar at 4.19.

He is durable. He has gone at least five innings in most appearances this season, unless he was getting shelled. He should not have these issues in a game against the Reds.

Aramis Garcia, Tyler Stephenson and Mike Moustakas are all on the injured list for Cincinnati. The Reds have four hitters this season with a .330+ xwOBA off of righties. Afterwards, the lineup falls off.

This is what Gibson can exploit: he can attack the bottom half of the Cincy lineup with ease and should be able to do so for multiple innings. Thus, expect him to go at least six strong.

The Philly bullpen has been solid in the last month, with a 3.75 combined xFIP. This ranks in the top 10 of the MLB. Corey Knebel is on the injured list, but everyone else is otherwise healthy.

Brad Hand has been the weakest link, but every other pitcher comes in under 4.00. Sam Coonrod is active again, and he adds needed innings late in the season.

The Phillies have enough artillery in the ‘pen to continue holding the Cincinnati lineup in check.

Can Reds' Zeuch Be Trusted?

Zeuch has only one start this season for Cincy — in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings against the Mets. He is plugging a hole to hopefully eat a few innings in this start, but even with the Phillies' lineup slumping this month, they should handle Zeuch with ease.

Bryce Harper is on the injured list, but the rest of the Phillies' lineup is healthy. Harper being injured leaves a hole in the middle of the batting order, though.

The Phillies are not much better this season, with only four hitters eclipsing a .330 xwOBA off of right-handers.

The difference from this side of the diamond is how to gauge Zeuch’s success, but avoiding this angle in the betting market is the correct move, especially with a steep moneyline and total.

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Phillies-Reds Pick

Take the under for the Cincinnati Reds. They have proven they cannot hit successfully against reasonable starting pitching.

The Philly bullpen has multiple arms to back up Gibson upon his exit from this game, as well.

The under at 4 (-120) should be played to 3.5 (-120). If Gibson blows by the top of the Cincy order, he will take care of business with the rest of the lineup.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds u4 (-120) | Play to 3.5 (-120)

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