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Phillies vs Yankees Picks, Odds, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview

Phillies vs Yankees Picks, Odds, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview article feature image

Jim Coswert/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

Wednesday, April 5
1:05 p.m. ET
Phillies Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-128 / +104
Yankees Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-128 / +104
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The AL East‘s New York Yankees host the NL East‘s Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday afternoon.

These two clubs have split the first two meetings in this series.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Phillies vs. Yankees betting pick.

Philadelphia Phillies

After losing to the Astros in last year’s World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies look to start this season on the right foot as they travel to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees. Slated to take the mound for Philadelphia is right-hander Aaron Nola.

Entering the final year of his contract, Nola looks to build upon last year’s strong campaign to earn a big ticket in the offseason. Nola produced a strong 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to go along with 235 strikeouts in 2022.

His underlying metrics were even stronger, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in hard-hit percentage, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and chase rate. Despite collecting just four strikeouts in his Opening Day start against the TexasRangers, we are going to target his K prop against the Yankees on Wednesday.

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New York Yankees

While Aaron Judge and company boast a dominant lineup, this group is fade-worthy in the strikeout department. In 2022, the Yankees ranked in the bottom-half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.

Through 81 career plate appearances against Nola, this current New York roster possesses a troubling 27.2 K% and 30.8 Whiff%. There is no doubt that New York boasts a powerful lineup, but this group is also susceptible to the punchout.

Looking at Wednesday’s projected starting lineup, six of the eight hitters posted a K% north of 22% last season, excluding rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe. A lot of home run hitters exist in this lineup, but with that comes a lot of potential strikeouts.

Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Pick

Aaron Nola’s great pitching should continue against New York. Across three career starts against the Yankees, he boasts a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP.

Nola posted an average of 8.7 strikeouts per game over that stretch, a trend that is likely to continue against the all-or-nothing New York lineup. Additionally, the Phillies have burned through eight relievers through the first two games of this series, so Nola may be depended on deeper than usual in this contest.

Pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125) | Play up to (-135)

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