The San Francisco Giants host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 28, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Pirates vs Giants Prediction
- Pirates vs Giants picks: F5 Under 4.5
My Pirates vs Giants best bet is the first five under 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Giants Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -201 | 7.5 -119o / -102u | +108 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +163 | 7.5 -119o / -102u | -132 |
Pirates vs Giants Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-201); Giants -1.5 (+163)
Pirates vs Giants Total: 7.5 (O -119 / U -102)
Pirates vs Giants Moneyline: Pirates +108; Giants -132
Pirates vs Giants Best Bet: F5 Under 4.5
Pirates vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | Carson Wisenhunt (Minors, SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-10 | W-L | 8-5 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.53/3.81 | ERA /xERA | 4.42 |
| 3.42/4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 4.67/4.84 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 12.9 | K-BB% | 14.2 |
| 45.3 | GB% | 43.6 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | N/A |
| 101 | Location+ | N/A |
Pirates vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
This first five innings (F5) MLB betting system targets early-game unders in matchups where the market anticipates limited scoring. It begins with a low closing total between 3.5 and 6.5 runs—often signaling elite starting pitching or poor hitting conditions. A key indicator is downward line movement: if the full-game total drops by 0.5 to 1 run from open to close, it reflects sharp money backing the under.
To further enhance value, the system filters for F5 unders with reasonable juice, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding overpriced bets. It also includes games played in moderate wind (4–9 mph), which subtly suppresses scoring without drawing excessive public attention.
By focusing on these tightly lined, sharp-driven markets over the past three MLB seasons, this model consistently finds value on first-half unders where smart money and subtle weather edges align.
This system has gone 84-45 this season, producing a 15% ROI.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5
Moneyline
There is no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no play on the run line.
Over/Under
Take the first five under in tonight's Pirates vs. Giants matchup.
