Pirates vs Orioles Odds, Picks | MLB Betting Guide for Friday
Pictured: Andrew McCutchen. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
- The Pirates and Orioles begin a weekend series on Friday night.
- Pittsburgh has struggled lately, but has Thursday off and our expert feels the break came at a perfect time.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup and offers up his best bet below.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 9 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -156 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -154 | 9 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +130 |
Don’t worry Yinzers, you’ll always have April. The Pirates got off to such a scorching start that Pittsburgh fans started dreaming about a Pirates-Steelers doubleheader in late October. The Buccos finished April with a 20-9 record, the best mark in the National League.
Well, since the start of May, it has been a disastrous 1-8 stretch. Despite the recent plummeting, the Pirates remain atop the NL Central, but are holding on for dear life.
Next will be a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles, who are also sitting in playoff contention and off to a great start. The Orioles are 24-13 and hold the top Wild Card spot.
Let’s jump into the preview and make a betting pick for Monday’s Orioles vs. Pirates series opener.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Johan Oviedo's season has been a solid representation of the Pirates as a whole. He started the year with three excellent starts in his four outings. He had a 2.22 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just six earned runs in his first four starts. Since then, he has raised his ERA to 5.59 with 17 earned runs and just eight strikeouts in his past three starts.
So which Oviedo are we going to see more of going forward? The hope in Pittsburgh is that he'll regain the form that aligns closer to his 3.91 xERA. He utilizes his slider more than any pitch and that has helped him rank in the top half of the league at limiting hard contact.
The Bucco bats have gone cold recently. They still rank 11th in the league in scoring, but they haven't scored more than three runs in 10 straight games. The Pirates could be a victim of bad luck, as they rank 13th in team wOBA, but sixth in xwOBA.
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Bradish was a top-15 prospect for Baltimore in 2021 and pitched to a solid 4.49 xERA in his first big-league season last year. He got much better as the season went on, posting a 7.38 ERA before the All-Star break, compared to a 3.28 ERA post All-Star break.
This season also didn't get off on the right foot for Bradish. He got injured in his first start of the year and missed the next two weeks. Since returning, he’s had just one quality start and has a 5.95 ERA in his five starts this year. Opponents have teed off on Bradish to a 51.6% hard-hit rate.
Baltimore is led by a young core that has the Orioles ranked top 10 in both wOBA and wRC+ this season. Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays and Jorge Mateo have led the way for Baltimore and all have a wRC+ over 130.
Pirates vs. Orioles Betting Pick
Is it scary to back a team that has just one win in its past 10 games? Yes.
Is it scary to back a team that hasn’t scored more than three runs in the past two weeks? Yes.
Is it scary to back a pitcher with an ERA over 5.50? Yes.
But positive regression is coming for the Pirates. They are not as good as the team we saw in April, but they are not as bad as the team we have seen thus far in May.
Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the league in xwOBA and can hopefully get the bats going again after a desperately needed day off. The Pirates have gotten excellent production from the likes of Jason Delay, Connor Joe, Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen, the returning hero. Still, the Pirates need Bryan Reynolds to get going and start playing like the All-Star centerfielder who just earned a big contract extension.
Oviedo has been horrible over his past three starts, but we have already seen three dominant performances from him this season, so we know he has it in him. His 3.91 xERA indicates he has been much better than his 5.59 ERA and nearly all of his metrics have been better than what we have seen from Bradish.
Baltimore will be facing its worse batting split, as the Orioles have been much better against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handed pitchers, the Orioles sit just 17th in wOBA.
The Orioles have the edge in the bullpen and I always like getting the push coverage of a tie score when backing the underdog, so I will play the Pirates on the first five money line.
Pick: Pirates 1st 5 (Play to +125) |
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