The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 1, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Pirates are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction
- Pirates vs Reds Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-112) | Bet to -155
My Pirates vs Reds best bet is on Pittsburgh to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -112 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +102 |
- Pirates vs Reds moneyline: Pirates -112, Reds +102
- Pirates vs Reds over/under: 8.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Pirates vs Reds spread: Pirates -1.5 (+136), Reds +1.5 (-164)
Pirates vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Stat | LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-4 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 4.05/3.47 | ERA / xERA | 3.85/ |
| 3.48/3.26 | FIP / xFIP | 4.76/4.76 |
| 20.7% | K-BB% | 7.9% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 40.8% |
| .309 | BABIP | .268 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 107 | Location+ | 99 |
Pirates vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
As everyone expected, a Friday night Skenes/Greene matchup turned into a shootout. Maybe a pair of struggling pitchers will lead to a lower-scoring game.
Braxton Ashcraft has allowed 23 runs (22 earned) over his last 25.2 innings, but there are a couple of caveats here.
He’s done this with a 17.4 K-BB% that’s not too far below his 20.7% season rate (though just 8.7% against the Yankees and Cubs last two times out) and while he’s allowed eight barrels, six of them came in just two starts.
He’s also allowed a 48.1 HardHit%, while LHBs have homered seven times with a .422 wOBA against him during this stretch, but stop and think about the Cincinnati offense and try to use more than a few fingers in counting their dangerous LHBs.
There’s J.J. Bleday’s 121 wRC+ and .244 ISO against RHP this year and Elly De La Cruz’s 107, .176 plus Nathaniel Lowe’s 130, .239.
That’s not just the dangerous portion of their left-handed contingent, it’s the absolute entirety of it via BARTOLO’s projected lineup. The remaining six batters are right-handed and while they have a healthy .344 wOBA against Ashcraft during this stretch, it comes with eight strikeouts and no walks in just 35 RHBs faced.
On the season, RHBs have just a .263 wOBA and .247 xwOBA against him.
You may not consider Andrew Abbott to be struggling based on his 3.67 ERA over the last month, but the 4.81 SIERA and 4.52 xFIP would differ. Even his .319 xwOBA allowed is nothing to write home about.
Abbott has benefited in parts from a .268 BABIP and 78.1 LOB%, which aren’t outrageous, but both are a bit suspect and likely to regress. Abbott does have a career 80.3 LOB% over 530 innings, but continuing at this pace would make him the best runner strander of all time.
In fact, he has an xFIP, FIP and xERA all measuring exactly 4.77 this year without a single estimator below four and a half, so how in the world is he keeping his ERA below four?
It’s certainly not because of Saturday’s projected defense, combining for -17 FRV, 14 worse than their projected counterparts.
I have Ashcraft slightly more than a full run ahead of Abbott, pushing his weighted estimators a bit above three and a half due to his last month of struggles, despite none of his non-pitch modeling indicators reaching that mark for the year.
Pirates vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
The Pirates haven’t been as strong against RHP as they have against LHP this year. The projected lineup averages a 98 wRC+ and .164 ISO against southpaws that more or less matches Cincinnati’s numbers against RHP (95, .169). They do have a 28-point superior wRC+ than the projected Reds over the last 30 days though.
Starting pitching, offense and defense are all Pittsburgh edges here and finally, they also have bullpen estimators (FIP, xFIP & SIERA) that average exactly half a run better than Cincinnati over the last 30 days through Thursday. BARTOLO ranks the Pittsburgh relievers six spots ahead of the Reds.
Picks: Pirates Moneyline (-112) | Bet to -155
