The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 25, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Reds Prediction
- Pirates vs Reds pick: Reds -1.5 (play to +105)
My Pirates vs Reds best bet is on the Reds to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +140 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -165 |
Pirates vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Stat | LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 2.65 / 3.45 | ERA / xERA | 3.44 / 3.61 |
| 2.87 / 3.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.96 / 3.75 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 2.9 | K-BB% | 5.1 |
| 50.6 | GB% | 41.9 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 100 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul’s Pirates vs Reds Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Reds finally found themselves in a position where their playoff fate rested in their own hands, but then they lost on Monday. In September, Cincinnati is playing above .500 ball and needs to keep that rolling to have a chance to make the playoffs.
Largely, it’s been the starting pitching that’s kept the Reds in the playoff picture. However, Nick Lodolo isn’t one of the starters who’re pitching well. He’s allowed 4+ runs in three of four outings since coming back from the injured list, so we'll see what form Lodolo brings.
It’s fair to wonder if the rust from being on the IL for close to a month is bothering Lodolo a bit. His stuff is still sharp, as evidenced by punching out 5+ hitters in three of those four outings, and the contact-heavy Padres were the lone team not to fall prey to Lodolo's strikeout stuff.
Offensively, the Reds have improved a bit over their past 12 games, ranking 18th in MLB with an 87 wRC+. The caveat is that the number only includes qualified hitters, and Elly De La Cruz (164 wRC+) is the lone hitter with a wRC+ better than 100.
If you drop the qualifier, four other Reds hitters have a wRC+ better than 120 (Spencer Steer, Sal Stewart, Tyler Stephenson, and Gavin Lux), which would greatly raise the Reds' overall offensive numbers. Lux is a platoon bat, but he’ll play against a right-handed pitcher, and he mashes right-handers.
In all, the Reds' lineup is still just decent at best. When De La Cruz is performing like a star, he can carry a lineup. But those star moments are few and far between.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates still haven't fully divulged their full pitching blueprint for Thursday. Braxton Ashcraft will be the "starter", but he won't have a full starter workload. He's only good for three or four innings, and five if he pitches efficiently. While he's frequently flipped from starter to reliever, Ashcraft has thrived in both roles, posting a 2.62 ERA with a 3.45 xERA and a 2.87 FIP.
Who will follow behind Ashcraft? It won't be Bubba Chandler, as he's slated to start Saturday. So, the only real option is top-100 prospect Hunter Barco goes multiple innings, or it's a full-on bullpen game. That's the lane the Pirates opted for when Ashcraft started against the Cubs two weeks ago.
A possible bullpen game is music to the ears of Reds backers/fans. Pittsburgh has a very mediocre bullpen that lacks strong middle-relief options in particular.
The Pirates' offense is pretty underwhelming, particularly against left-handers. Both O'Neil Cruz and Spencer Horowitz are strict platoon hitters. So, Lodolo will erase them from the lineup just by being a lefty. Cruz, while inconsistent, provides power to a team with very few power threats.
September has been a brutal hitting month for the Pirates, as they rank 29th with a 74 wRC+. They also rank dead-last with 13 homers and 26th in ISO. Runs will be scarce unless the Pirates somehow string hits together.
Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Reds -1.5 at plus money is the play here. I know Cincinnati's lousy offense over the first two games in this series doesn't lend much optimism, but the key here is the Pirates' bullpen ERA.
Since the trade deadline, Pittsburgh is 17th in bullpen ERA and 23rd in xERA. Without a clear plan behind Ashcraft, Manager Don Kelly will need to be creative to further damage the Reds' playoff odds.
Pick: Reds -1.5 (play to +105)
Moneyline
I don't like either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
As mentioned, I see value in the Reds to cover this afternoon.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from game totals today.
Pirates vs Reds Betting Trends
