The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 29, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are -110 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are -109 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Phillies Prediction
- Pirates vs Phillies Pick: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+459), Over 8.5 (-110)
My Pirates vs Phillies best bets are on Bryce Harper to record over 0.5 doubles and the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Phillies Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -109 |
- Pirates vs Phillies moneyline: Pirates -110, Phillies -109
- Pirates vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Phillies spread: Pirates -1.5 (+152), Phillies +1.5 (-185)
Pirates vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.07/2.87 | ERA / xERA | 5.58/4.28 |
| 2.83/3.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.85/3.95 |
| 21.7% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 44.7% | GB% | 40.5% |
| .301 | BABIP | .322 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 106 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
It's Braxton Ashcraft vs. Aaron Nola in the country's original capital tonight. And I'm excited for it. I'm a Pennsylvania kid, born and raised in Pittsburgh. So I've been having a good time watching this iteration of the Pirates team. Ashcraft is a particular delight to watch.
But does he have it in him to handle Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper 3-4 times? The numbers would say yes.
- Ashcraft vs. RHB: 22% K%, 4.6% BB%, .240 xwOBA
- Ashcraft vs. LHB: 31% K%, 6.4% BB%, .287 xwOBA
The approach to lefties is a bunch of four-seamers (36%) high in the zone and then a helping of curveballs (29%) and some sliders (19%). The curveball is a truly elite weapon for him against lefties.
They haven't been able to do anything against the pitch with a .189 xwOBA allowed. However, his fastball is not great. It's been hit out of the yard five times on 288 pitches against lefties with a 47% FB%.
Pirates vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
I'd expect Ashcraft to get hit in the air a couple of times by Schwarber/Harper.
One of my projection models' best markets this year has been batter doubles. I don't think you hear a lot of people recommending doubles props. But I'm going to do it. The best bet I have on this game is Bryce Harper over 0.5 doubles +459 on DraftKings.
Let's talk about the bullpens, because it's an angle we can take. The Pirates have not had a good time holding leads late. They would have the league's best record if all games ended after the seventh inning. Instead, they're 42-42.
The Phillies bullpen is much better, certainly a top five group in the league. The problem the Phillies have tonight is that they have no lefties available.
They could use Kyle Backhus for a third straight game (27 pitches Saturday, 8 on Sunday), but I'd say they're pretty unlikely to do that since they're opening a four-game set here.
This is huge for the Pirates. They have a team .776 OPS against righties and it's way down at .687 against lefties. With nine innings against righties, they'll score some runs. I think we'll get over the 8.5 in this one, but it might take all nine innings.
Picks: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Doubles (+459), Over 8.5 (-110)
