PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Picks: Target Jordan Montgomery & Merrill Kelly (Friday, August 4)
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Hits Allowed -120
| Matchup | Marlins vs. Rangers |
| Time | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
After the dust settled from a busy MLB trade deadline, the Rangers revamped starting rotation looks primed for a deep playoff run.
One of the new faces — Jordan Montgomery — is the focus of my favorite prop for today’s slate.
Montgomery was solid for the Cardinals, pitching to a 3.48 ERA. However, in 12 of his 21 starts, he’s allowed at least six hits, including an outing against the Marlins just two weeks ago.
The Marlins, as a team, are hitting .311 against southpaws this season, which leads baseball by a whopping 23 percentage points. 15 of 21 lefties who started a game against the Marlins — and pitched at least four full innings — have allowed at least six hits.
I have Montgomery projected to face 24 batters today, allowing close to seven hits. I’d play this line to -140.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120) | Play to -140
Merrill Kelly Over 16.5 Pitching Outs -125
| Matchup | Diamondbacks vs. Twins |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Yet again this season, Merrill Kelly has been a workhorse for an otherwise young Diamondbacks rotation. Since being fully stretched out, the fifth-year pro has gone over this line in 13 of 17 starts.
Notably in that same span, he hasn’t gone consecutive starts without pitching at least 17 outs. Coming off a five-inning performance against Seattle, I like Kelly to bounce back today.
He’ll be pitching in Minnesota against the Twins today. The Twins' bats have been hot, but we get favorable wind conditions at Target Field today (wind blowing in at roughly 10 mph).
Plus, Kelly loves to go to his changeup, a pitch that has given the Twins trouble all season; they rank 22nd in wRC per 100 changeups seen.
And Kelly’s changeup rates highly with a 105 Stuff+.
And with the Diamondbacks coming in on game eight of a 10-day stretch without an off day, I see them leaning on Kelly to eat innings.
I have the righty slated to finish six full innings at 93 pitches.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125) | Play to Over 17.5 Outs at +100 or Better
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