PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Props: Back Charlie Morten Against Mets

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.

In his third season with the Braves, Charlie Morton has flown somewhat under the radar. Given that the Braves are chock-full of superstars, it’s easy to forget the contributions of a guy like Morton, who's akin to a “3-and-D” role player on an NBA title contender.

But ever since arriving in Atlanta before the 2021 season, Morton has served as a stabilizing force in the Braves' rotation.

This season, Morton is pitching to a 3.54 ERA. He’s cleared this line in 16 of 24 starts this season, including eight of his 12 at home.

Leaning on his curveball more than ever (throwing it 44% of the time), the pitch has become his most utilized weapon in his arsenal this season. With an average spin rate exceeding 3000 RPM (97th percentile), opponents are only hitting .181 against the breaking ball.

Models love the pitch too; Morton’s 139 stuff+ on his curveball is second in baseball to only Corbin Burnes.

Why am I harping on the curveball so much? Because the Mets have struggled against the pitch all season. The Metropolitans are 23rd in weighted runs created per 100 curveballs seen this season (per Statcast).

In general, Morton has had plenty of success against the Mets. Specifically versus their top four hitters (Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso), Morton has held them to just 21 hits in 105 at bats (.200).

With the rest of the Mets' lineup not packing much of a punch, I love Morton’s prospects today.

I have the 16-year veteran projected to clear six innings tonight, making this my pick of the day.

Pick: Charlie Morton Over 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115) | Play to 16.5 Outs