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PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Betting Value on Brad Keller’s Pitching Outs (Friday, July 22)

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Betting Value on Brad Keller’s Pitching Outs (Friday, July 22) article feature image
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William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brad Keller.

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Brad Keller Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115)

Prop Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115)
Matchup Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings

After a wholly disappointing 2021 which saw Brad Keller post a 5.39 ERA and 6.47 xERA, the Royals have been rewarded for sticking with the big right-hander in 2022. Keller is amidst his best season since his 2018 rookie campaign, with a 3.96 ERA and 3.83 xERA through his first 17 starts.

He’s reduced his Hard-Hit Rate by almost 7% (45.0% vs 38.2%) and has almost halved his Barrel Rate (10.9% vs 5.5%) this season compared to 2021. These stats, coupled with his increased command (7.4% Walk Rate in 2022 vs. 10.4% last season) have boosted Keller to become a reliable innings eater for the Royals.

And the Royals really do lean on the fifth-year pro to pitch deep into the game. He’s eclipsed this line in 13 of his 17 starts, easily pacing a subpar Kansas City pitching staff in innings pitched.

Keller gets the Rays tonight, who will be missing several key pieces of their offense. Wander Franco, Harold Ramirez, Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot all are on the Rays’ injured list. As is, the Rays put together a subpar offensive first half, with a .683 OPS versus right-handed pitching, ranking 23rd.

It’s not always pretty with Keller, but coming out of the All-Star break with extended rest, I expect Royals manager Mike Matheny to let his de-facto ace get through the majority of this game. I have Keller projected to finish six innings before he reaches 95 pitches.

Pick: Brad Keller Over 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115) | Play to Over 17.5 Outs

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