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PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Expect Dodgers to Rough up Pablo Lopez (Monday, August 29)

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Expect Dodgers to Rough up Pablo Lopez (Monday, August 29) article feature image
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Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Marlins pitcher Pablo Lopez

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Pablo Lopez Pitching Outs

Prop P. Lopez – Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105)
Matchup Dodgers vs. Marlins
Time 6:40 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

After a blistering start to the season, Pablo Lopez has cooled down considerably. Since the beginning of June, Lopez has pitched to an even 5.00 ERA across his 15 outings. He’s stayed under this line in 10 of 15 starts over that span.

The right-hander is primarily a fastball (four-seamer, sinker and cutter) and changeup pitcher, throwing the combination more than 90 percent of the time. And he’s seen regression with both sets of pitches. Before June, Lopez held hitters to a .239 batting average against his fastballs, and .149 versus his changeup. But since then, those averages have ballooned to .294 against the fastballs, and .238 on the changeup.

What this means is that Lopez has become more predictable to hitters, and it shows in the advanced numbers, as well. Early on, Lopez recorded a 30.9% called + swinging strike rate, with a contact percentage of 70.9%. Now, those numbers are 26.7% and 83.8%, respectively.

And it won’t get easier for Lopez tonight, as he faces the vaunted Dodgers lineup. During their recent tear over the last month, Los Angeles has put up a whopping .882 OPS and 145 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. And they continue to be one of the most patient teams, seeing 4.04 pitches per plate appearance (second in the MLB).

With Lopez already at a career-high in innings pitched at the professional level, and the Marlins well out of playoff contention, I don’t see him having the longest leash tonight.

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