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PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Gerrit Cole’s Pitching Outs Worth Targeting at Home (July 12)

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop: Gerrit Cole’s Pitching Outs Worth Targeting at Home (July 12) article feature image
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AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez. Pictured: Gerrit Cole

  • Yankees ace Gerrit Cole takes the mound on Tuesday at home against the Reds.
  • After a rough last start against the Red Sox, Cole has an opportunity to bounce back today in a favorable spot against the Reds' bats.
  • PropBetGuy breaks down the matchup and how to back Cole tonight.

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Gerrit Cole Over 18.5 Pitching Outs +105

Prop Over 18.5 Pitching Outs +105
Matchup Reds vs. Yankees
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings

After a hard-fought, four-game series at Fenway Park, the Yankees return home for an interleague clash against the Reds. Gerrit Cole is coming off of a subpar performance versus Boston, where he allowed five runs in six innings. However, I love tonight’s matchup as a prime bounce-back spot for the Yankee ace.

Cole has been dominant at Yankee stadium this season, sporting a 2.31 ERA in 50.2 innings across his eight home starts. He’s eclipsed this line in five of his last six home outings.

Where the Yankee righty really excels in his home starts is with his control. His Walk Rate of 3.6% (seven walks in 50.2 home innings) is the eighth-lowest out of 118 pitchers with at least 30 home innings pitched.

This is crucial, not only because walks drive up pitch count, but because the Reds might not have much of a chance at baserunners without them. Over the last two months, Cincinnati’s .682 OPS vs right-handed pitching, 87 wRC+, and .131 ISO all rank in the bottom six in MLB.

Even coming off a day off yesterday, the Yankees should be looking to Cole to set the tone for the final week before the All-Star break. I have Cole finishing a relatively clean seven innings tonight.

Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 18.5 Pitching Outs +105 (Play to -115)

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