PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Picks: Fade Johan Oviedo In San Diego (Wednesday, July 26)
Brennan Asplen/Getty Images. Pictured: Johan Oviedo
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Johan Oviedo (PIT) Under 17.5 Outs -121
|Matchup||Pirates vs. Padres|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
Johan Oviedo takes the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates today in their series finale in San Diego against the Padres. With a widely available outs prop of 17.5 for the young right-hander, I’m keying in on the under.
Oviedo is running a 4.77 ERA this season, relatively in line with his underlying metrics (4.68 xERA). He’s stayed under this line in 10 of his 20 starts, but has struggled a bit more on the road. Away from the friendly confines of PNC Park, Oviedo has pitched to a 5.26 ERA, failing to reach six full innings in six of those 10 starts.
He’s a slider-heavy pitcher, throwing it 40% of the time, with 46% of plate appearances against him ending with the pitch – both are the highest among his arsenal. The Padres are an above-average hitting team, with a 0.07 wRC per 100 sliders seen (seventh highest in the MLB).
But the real rub here is the Padres' approach at the plate. As a team, San Diego sees 3.99 pitches per plate appearance, which is the third most in baseball. This is mostly due to the fact that the Padres rank last in overall swing rate, zone swing rate, and chase rate.
Oviedo’s strike rate is 63.2%, which ranks 77th out of 104 qualified pitchers. And with a chase rate sitting in the 11th percentile, Oviedo should have a tough time staying efficient with his pitch count.
Nine of the last 11 right-handed starters have stayed under this line when facing the Padres at Petco Park. And with an off day tomorrow, there's no need for the Pirates to push Oviedo to a triple-digit pitch count. I have the hurler projected at 16 outs today and would play this line to -140.