PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Props | Rockies vs. Dodgers Fade Lance Lynn (Friday, August 11)
Lance Lynn (LAD) Under 8.5 Strikeouts -152
|Matchup||Rockies vs. Dodgers|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
If you’ve been following my bets over the years, you’ll know that I’m not usually a fan of laying this much juice. However, I don’t let the price of a line dictate where I see value, and this is one of those instances where I’m comfortable paying a hefty price tag.
With that out of the way, I’m on Lance Lynn under 8.5 strikeouts tonight.
Lynn has stayed under this line in 19 of his 23 starts (and under 7.5 strikeouts in 18 of 23). And while the new Dodger is a workhorse in terms of eating innings, he’s pitching to a 6.11 ERA this season.
The burly right-hander has really struggled against lefties this season. Not only is his strikeout percentage much lower in the split (22.8% compared to 30.6% against righties), but he’s also allowed a sky-high .973 OPS to southpaws.
Lynn’s opponent tonight, the Rockies, will likely start five to six left-handed hitters tonight. Yes, the Rockies offense is always tougher to trust in away games, but they are in the middle of a road trip, which keeps us more immune to the dreaded Coors hangover.
In fact, only two of the last 25 right-handed starters have cleared this line against the Rockies in a home game. While Lynn can miss bats, this line appears to be a reflection of Lynn at his absolute best, which is something we haven’t seen with much regularity this season.
I have the 13-year veteran projected at about 6.9 strikeouts. So not only am I more than comfortable ponying up some juice at under 8.5, but would also play this line at under 7.5 for plus odds (at 0.75 units).