PropBetGuy’s Thursday MLB Player Prop: How to Fade Reds’ Nick Lodolo in Field of Dreams Game (August 11)
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Lodolo
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Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125)
|Prop||Lodolo Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125)|
|Matchup||Cubs vs. Reds|
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
Tonight, we’re treated to Major League Baseball’s newest tradition, the Field of Dreams Game. With the Cubs and Reds well out of playoff contention, both teams are likely to relish the chance to play in the Iowa cornfields as the highlight of their season.
Nick Lodolo will take the mound for the Reds. Along with Hunter Greene, the former first-round pick serves as the future of the Reds’ rotation. While Lodolo has performed admirably in his first nine MLB starts, posting a 4.40 ERA, I’m looking to fade the lefty’s outs prop tonight.
Lodolo has stayed under this line in seven of his nine starts, and he failed to pitch past the fifth inning in his three road starts. After his first time through the batting order, he’s allowed a .982 OPS.
And while the rookie does possess an electric pitch arsenal, he struggles with his control. Lodolo’s 3.99 pitches per plate appearance would rank in the top 20 percentile if he qualified, and his strike percentage of 61.7% would rank 102nd out of 112 starting pitchers.
While the Cubs don’t possess the most potent of lineups, they are one of the more patient teams at the plate. They rank above average in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.91), and below average at chasing pitches outside the zone (31.8%).
There are a lot of unknowns when playing at a neutral stadium. However, as we saw in last season’s 17-run slugfest between the Yankees and White Sox, I like the variables to work in the hitters’ favor. I have Lodolo projected to record 15 outs.
Pick: Nick Lodolo Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125) | Playable to Under 16.5 Pitching Outs
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