Rays vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Sunday, September 17
Pictured: Dean Kremer. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Rays vs. Orioles Odds
The fourth and final game of this AL East series gets underway Sunday with the first-place Baltimore Orioles hosting the second-place Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay won the first two matchups by a combined score of 11-4 before Baltimore came back with a 8-0 victory Saturday.
Will the Rays take care of business once again? Or can the Orioles claim back-to-back wins and even up the series?
Here's a look at the odds and my Rays vs. Orioles betting pick and prediction.
The Tampa Bay Rays' rotation deservedly gets plenty of respect, but the lineup has flown under the radar. Tampa Bay ranks in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
This lineup also does a tremendous job of avoiding strikeouts and ranks in the top half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. In fact, both Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes possess strikeout rates south of 18%.
That trend is likely to continue against Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer. Through 57 career plate appearances against Kremer, the Rays lineup possesses a mere 12.3 K%.
It has been a tough campaign for Kremer, who owns a 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through 29 starts. His underlying metrics are even worse as the right-hander ranks in the 25th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity and Barrel%.
He also ranks in the 34th percentile or lower in Chase%, Whiff% and K%. So, let's find a way to fade Kremer.
You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 (PointsBet), a total he's failed to surpass in three of his past four starts against Tampa Bay.
Rays vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Kremer's poor performances on the mound have resulted in short outing lately and more of the same is likely against Tampa Bay. If we get another short start, then five strikeouts is going to be a tall task to accomplish against a lineup that rarely strikes out.
Mix in Kremer's poor strikeout success against Tampa Bay and under 4.5 strikeouts at plus-money is the best bet to make in this contest.