MLB Odds & Picks for Rays vs. Yankees: Betting Value on Over/Under

MLB Odds & Picks for Rays vs. Yankees: Betting Value on Over/Under article feature image

Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured; New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes

  • The Yankees are once again home favorites in tonight's matchup with the Rays.
  • New York sends Nestor Cortes to the mound, while Tampa Bay will counter with Jeffrey Springs.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Rays vs. Yankees Odds

Rays Odds+144
Yankees Odds-172
Over/Under7 (-112 / -108)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Yankees fan. And while I’m being honest with you all, I’m starting to get worried. After a historic start that had New York fans feeling like it was '98 again, the Yankees have gone just 3-10 this month.

Their pitching has been bad, their bullpen has been bad, and their offense has been bad. The Bronx Bombers have been shut out in back-to-back games, and Yankees fans are starting to pull out the panic button.

Rays' Offense Struggling

After beginning the year as a relief pitcher, Jeffrey Springs (LHP) has transitioned to the rotation this season and has largely found success. He switched to a full-time starting pitcher in early May and has made 15 starts for Tampa Bay.

Springs didn’t allow a run out of the bullpen this year and has been solid as a starter too. He holds a 2.92 ERA and 3.31 xERA. Springs throws a mix of a fastball, changeup, and slider. His changeup has been his main strikeout pitch, especially against right-handed hitters.

After finishing third in wRC+ last season, the Tampa Bay offense has really dropped down this season. It ranks just 13th this year, and the team's wOBA is down at 25th in the league. The biggest concern is the Rays are striking out a ton.

Tampa Bay has just been decimated by injuries this season. Pitchers Tyler Glasnow, JT Chargois, JP Feyereisen, Andrew Kittredge, Shane Baz, Josh Fleming and Matt Wisler are on the injured list. Key position players Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier and superstar Wander Franco are sidelined as well.

Cortes Still Solid For Yankees

Nestor Cortes (LHP) has been dominant for the Yankees this season and the ace of this staff. He is 9-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 2.79 xERA. He has the 10th-best ERA in the league. At this rate, he almost has to be the Game 1 starter.

Cortes isn’t going to overpower anybody with a fastball in the low 90s, but hitters have just a .188 xBA against it. He pairs that with a nearly identical cutter that's also been fantastic.

Over the last two weeks, the Yankees' once high-powered offense has gone ice cold. It ranks just 24th in wOBA and wRC+, and has been striking out a ton.

Aaron Judge is still in MVP form, and the team recently got Anthony Rizzo back. But Giancarlo Stanton remains sidelined, and now DJ LeMahieu is injured – right as he was starting to heat up.

Rays-Yankees Pick

The Yankees' offense has been downright dreadful as of late. The Yankees have been shut out in back-to-back games and three times in the past week. Outside of Judge, nobody on this team inspires any confidence at the plate.

Springs has been terrific since moving to the rotation, and he is much better against right-handed batters, which should help him keep Judge in check.

Cortes has been the one bright spot for the Yankees, and they will desperately need him to shut down the Tampa Bay offense considering he likely won't get much run support.

I'm going to bank on Nasty Nestor – and also continue to have little faith in the Yankees offense. The under is 7-4 between these two teams this season, and the two teams are a combined 12-5-3 hitting the under in their last 10 games.

Play under 7.5 at -118 and expect a low-scoring game in the Bronx.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)

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