The San Diego Padres host the Boston Red Sox on August 10, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Red Sox vs Padres Prediction
- Red Sox vs Padres picks: Under 7.5
My Red Sox vs Padres best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Padres Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +118 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -145 |
Red Sox vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | Dylan Cease (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 4-10 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.03/4.41 | ERA /xERA | 4.60/3.41 |
| 4.23/4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.51/3.32 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 9.4 | K-BB% | 21.6 |
| 49.9 | GB% | 37.3 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 102 | Location+ | 100 |
Red Sox vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB betting system targets unders in Games 3 or 4 of regular-season series when the home team starts a softer pitcher—defined by low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP. At this stage of a series, hitters have already faced multiple arms and have sharper scouting reports, yet run production often stays muted without overpowering velocity.
By filtering out strong directional wind conditions, the setup avoids inflated run environments and keeps offensive surges in check. When the home club is in the mid-season grind, winning at a modest pace, betting markets may underestimate how frequently these controlled, low-intensity matchups result in slower-paced, low-scoring games. This creates a profitable niche for contrarian under bettors.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline
There is no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no play on the run line.
Over/Under
Take the under in today's Red Sox vs. Padres series finale.
