Reds vs Phillies Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview (April 9)
Via Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Taijuan Walker #99 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on April 03, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City.
- The Phillies host the Reds on Sunday afternoon as home favorites with Taijuan Walker on the mound.
- The Phillies are looking for the series sweep after taking the first two games of this weekend series.
- Tony Sartori previews the matchup and shares his top betting pick below.
Reds vs. Phillies Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -134 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -188 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +112 |
To kick off Sunday's MLB slate, the NL East's Philadelphia Phillies host the NL Central's Cincinnati Reds.
After winning each of the first two matchups of this three-game series, Philadelphia looks to complete the sweep at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday afternoon.
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Reds vs. Phillies betting pick.
Cincinnati Reds
It looks like it will be yet another long season for the Cincinnati Reds, who have registered just nine runs over their last three losses. This lineup has struck out 25 times over those three outings, and this troubling start is likely to continue Sunday against right-hander Taijuan Walker.
In 2022, the Reds ranked 23rd in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Sunday's projected lineup, the punch-out is likely to be an issue once again as seven of the nine hitters possessed a K% north of 21% last season.
Through the first week of this season, Cincinnati ranks 27th in K% when facing right-handers. Quite simply, this Reds lineup is terrible and should be faded often moving forward.
Philadelphia Phillies
Walker's debut for the Philadelphia Phillies could have gone a lot smoother. In his first start of the 2023 campaign, he allowed four runs on four hits through four and one-third innings pitched against the New York Yankees.
However, the strikeout pitch was still working well for Walker, who racked up five in the shortened outing. Boasting a six-pitch arsenal that is dominated by a nasty split-finger fastball, Walker's unpredictability/uniqueness is his greatest strength and the primary reason he is able to retire hitters frequently via strikeout.
Walker has now posted a K% north of 20% in six of his first seven seasons in the MLB, surpassing 22% four of those six times. While it is a small sample size with only one start under his belt in 2023, he currently ranks in the 58th percentile or better in K%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate.
Reds vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Cincinnati's struggles in the strikeout department are likely to continue against Walker. While it is certainly not the largest sample size, this current Reds roster possesses a 21.9 K% and 25.9 Whiff% across 32 career plate appearances against the right-hander.
In three career starts against Cincinnati, Walker is 2-1 with 18 strikeouts. Play Walker to strike out over 6.5 Reds hitters at +114 at FanDuel as my favorite pick for today's Reds vs. Phillies matchup.
Pick: Taijuan Walker Over 6.5 Strikeouts +114 |
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