MLB Odds, Picks Today: Reds vs Red Sox Prediction
Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale.
- The Cincinnati Reds head to Fenway Park on Thursday night to take on the Boston Red Sox.
- Chris Sale takes the mound for the Red Sox, and if he can go deep in the game, he could rack up plenty of strikeouts.
- Check out Nick Martin's best bet for Reds vs. Red Sox below.
Reds vs Red Sox Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 9.5 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -140 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -168 | 9.5 +100 / -122 | -1.5 +116 |
The Reds will look to complete a rare sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway and extend their winning streak to six games on Thursday. Hunter Greene and Chris Sale will also go head-to-head in an exciting starting pitching matchup.
So, where does the betting value lie in this scarlet-heavy matchup? Let's dive in.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will begin June riding high after a fairly positive month of May that included 13 wins and more encouraging play from their young talents. That could improve even more with top prospect Elly De La Cruz, who seems likely to receive a call-up sometime in the coming weeks.
Cincinnati hit to a wRC+ of 100 in May, with a wOBA of .331. The Reds have been productive versus left-handed pitching, although it has come with a high strikeout rate. They own a wRC+ of 102 against lefties but have struck out 23.1% of the time, which is the 11th-worst mark in baseball.
Greene will look to provide a quality outing Thursday and offer his side a chance to claim a rare six-game winning streak.
Greene continues to offer mixed results on the mound. At times, his stuff looks entirely untouchable, yet the opposition continues to rack up earned runs at a fairly high rate. Greene put up a 24.4% strikeout rate in May but still allowed an ERA of 5.46 in 28 innings.
It would be fair to say his actual results were better than that mark suggests, however, as he did provide three reasonably strong starts in a month with a nightmare schedule of ballparks and opponents.
Boston Red Sox
Boston would love to see Sale go deep into this matchup, as no Boston starter has thrown more than five innings since May 23. It's reasonable to believe Sale could come through with a much-needed quality start, as he has achieved incredible results with a strong underlying process.
In 26 May innings, Sale pitched to an ERA of 2.42 with a WHIP of just 0.81. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced, walked just 4% and allowed a hard contact rate of only 27%.
Opposing batters now have a chase percentage of 50% against Sale with two strikes this season. That's the highest mark in baseball and a key to his return to strikeout dominance. Hitters have also chased 39% of his off-speed stuff out of the zone.
Reds vs Red Sox Betting Pick
Sale was outright dominant in the month of May and is finally looking close to his former self. The Red Sox would love to see him give 6+ innings here, and I presume his leash will be fairly long if he doesn't get entirely blown up.
Even if it's a little frightening to back Sale to go deep into a game, his stellar OBA allowed in May suggests that he should be able to pitch deep into this game. His 30.3% strikeout rate in May means a long outing could mean cruising over his strikeout prop — particularly in a matchup against a Reds team that strikes out often against left-handers.
There's value on Sale to go over 6.5 strikeouts at -115.
Pick: Chris Sale Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112) |
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