Rockies vs Cubs Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, September 22
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Rockies vs. Cubs Odds
Jameson Taillon looks like he will line up to face Noah Davis of the Colorado Rockies. Taillon hasn't been particularly strong for the Chicago Cubs this year, but the Rockies, outside of a few players, haven't hit well this season.
Davis has eclipsed five innings just once this season and has been hit-or-miss in limited action.
The Rockies only have a couple of decent arms in the bullpen, so the Cubs should have plenty of opportunities to score on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Betting the Rockies to go over their team is the best bet for Rockies vs. Cubs.
Davis held a 4.50 ERA over 60 innings at the AAA level this season. His WHIP was a whopping 1.45, so not much changed when he was promoted to the majors. This season, he holds a 9.58 ERA over 20 2/3 innings. He's walked 10 hitters and has only struck out 18.
The Rockies haven't been able to hit in September, especially off of righties. This month, the Rockies hold an 83 wRC+ and a .730 OPS with a 7.8% walk rate and a 25.9% strikeout rate off right handers. They also only have four batters with an xwOBA over .320.
In relief, Colorado has a 5.46 xFIP this month. The Rockies bullpen also carries a collective 12.4% walk rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate, which is a recipe for disaster, even if some Chicago hitters are slumping.
Taillon has a 5.27 ERA against a 5.11 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 11.1%, his Average Exit Velocity is 88.6 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is 39.2%. His walk rate is only 5.9%, his strikeout rate is 21.5% and his second half ERA is 4.32, but that's not enough to back on the moneyline.
The Cubs have a decent lineup. This month, they have a 103 wRC+ and .743 OPS. Their walk rate is 9.5% and their strikeout rate is 20%. The Cubs have seven hitters with an xwOBA above .320 and since Davis has a tendency to issue walks, this is a poor matchup for the Rockies.
Christopher Morel – Chicago Cubs (24)
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) September 21, 2023
The Cubs have multiple arms they can throw in relief. Chicago boasts a 3.88 xFIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate. They also have several relievers with a sub-4.00 xFIP and can hold the Rockies in check in the late innings.
Rockies vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Cubs moneyline is pretty steep for a team that's given up a reasonable lead in the National League wild card race. This bet is more a fade of the Rockies pitching staff. The Cubs have enough bats to get past Davis and a poor relief staff. Expect the Cubs to get on the board early and often and take their team total to 5.5 (-133).