Rockies vs Cubs Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (Monday, April 1)
Rockies vs. Cubs Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 6.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -132 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-215 | 6.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +110 |
Here's everything you need to know about Rockies vs Cubs on Monday, April 1 — including odds and a prediction.
Rockies vs Cubs odds have Chicago as a -215 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at 6.5. Colorado will hand the ball to right-hander Dakota Hudson, and I am looking at his prop market for my Rockies vs Cubs pick for Monday.
Let's dive into why I am fading Hudson as I make a Rockies vs Cubs pick.
Hudson is coming off a difficult 2023 campaign, posting a 4.98 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 18 appearances on the mound. His underlying metrics were even worse, ranking in the ninth percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit percentage.
He also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the ninth percentile or lower in Chase%, Whiff% and K%. Subsequently, Hudson recorded two or fewer strikeouts in 12 of those 18 appearances on the rubber last year.
These woes are likely to continue against Chicago, a team he possesses a 3.72 ERA against through 10 career meetings. Hudson recorded two or fewer strikeouts in five of those 10 outings, which bodes well for his under 2.5 strikeouts prop given that it is paying out at +140.
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Although the Cubs missed out on the playoffs last year, it was not because of this lineup. In 2023, they ranked in the top 11 of the league in BA, SLG, OPS and wOBA.
They also ranked 13th in K%, which makes sense when you look at the makeup of this team. Diving into Saturday's projected starting lineup, six of Chicago's nine hitters finished 2023 with a K% south of 23%.
Furthermore, the Cubs have torched Hudson in the past. Through 89 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Chicago lineup boasts a .350 BA, .450 SLG and .380 wOBA.
It also possesses a mere 11.2 K% across those 89 plate appearances.
Rockies vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Hudson's strikeout prop is certainly as low as it gets for a starting pitcher at 2.5, which is why we are catching the generous price of +140 via DraftKings. However, there are still multiple reasons to like the under in this spot.
First, +140 is a great price considering that it is 11 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing. Second, Hudson has continued to decline over the past two seasons, and his analytics suggest that it is going to keep getting worse before it gets better.
He's particularly struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the bottom-one percentile in K% in 2023.
Pick: Dakota Hudson Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+140 | Play to +135)
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