The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on July 23, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
After two low-scoring games and one win apiece, this series will conclude today with Dylan Cease starting for the Padres and Sandy Alcantara on the hill for the Marlins.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Padres vs Marlins Prediction
- Padres vs Marlins picks: Under 8 (-115, DraftKings)
My Padres vs Marlins best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Marlins Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8 -102o / -119u | -149 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8 -102o / -119u | +123 |
Padres vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SD) | Stat | RHP Sandy Alcantara |
|---|---|---|
| 3-9 | W-L | 4-9 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.64 / 3.46 | ERA / xERA | 7.14 / 5.10 |
| 3.49 / 3.30 | FIP / xFIP | 4.66 / 4.51 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.49 |
| 21.6 | K-BB% | 7.8 |
| 35.7 | GB% | 45.9 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Padres vs Marlins Preview
The first two games of this series have gone under, and the trend is likely to continue for the third game today.
Both offenses are currently at a low point. The Marlins are 23rd overall in wRC+ in July and will face Dylan Cease, who's coming off a great start against the Washington Nationals, with 10 strikeouts in five innings 1/3 while allowing no runs and just four hits.
Cease is also due for positive regression since his xERA is over a point better than his actual ERA.
The Padres are struggling, especially against right-handed pitchers. They're 23rd in wRC+ (99) and 28th in slugging percentage (.379) versus right-handed pitchers this season, although they'll go against Sandy Alcantara, who's doing poorly this season.
Nevertheless, Alcantara's splits are much better at home, plus we have a weather angle from Bet Labs recommending the under for this game.
Padres vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close. The overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, ranging between 6 and 29. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, DraftKings)
Padres vs Marlins Betting Trends
