The Minnesota Twins (60-73) host the San Diego Padres (75-59) on August 29, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Padres vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Padres vs Twins Prediction
- Padres vs Twins pick: Under 8.5
Our Padres vs Twins best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Twins Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +105 |
Padres vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nestor Cortes (SDP) | Stat | RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 3-4 |
| -0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.66/5.54 | ERA /xERA | 5.30/4.40 |
| 7.19/5.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.83/3.38 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 8.0% | K-BB% | 20.9% |
| 34.1% | GB% | 34.2% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 91 | Location+ | 102 |
Padres vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
The San Diego Padres (-125) open a new series against the Milwaukee Brewers (+105) tonight, with the total set at 8.5 runs.
San Diego is coming off a tough series against the Mariners and remain just two games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Milwaukee also stumbled in its last set, losing two of three to Toronto, capped by a 9-8 loss on Wednesday.
On the mound, Nestor Cortes gets the ball for San Diego, while Milwaukee counters with Zebby Matthews. Both pitchers have shown flashes of consistency this season, and with bullpens relatively rested entering the series, run prevention is expected to hold up.
That lines up perfectly with one of Evan Abrams’ most reliable betting angles: the “Wind Whisper Unders” system. This system thrives in spots where totals sit in the mid-range (7–10 runs) and align with key weather signals—specifically winds blowing in or cross-field at moderate speeds, paired with cooler temperatures.
When combined with steady line movement down from the opener, it often signals a quieter offensive environment than the market initially expected.
Tonight’s setup checks those boxes, with modest public interest on the under but sharper money pushing the total lower. That keeps value intact rather than fully priced in.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
Padres vs Twins Betting Trends
