The New York Mets (62-47) and San Francisco Giants (54-55) will face off in the MLB tonight. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on SNY.
Continue below for my Giants vs Mets predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 1, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Giants vs Mets Prediction
Giants vs Mets pick: F5 Under 4 Runs
My Giants vs Mets best bet is first five innings under, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Mets Odds, Spread
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Giants vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Robbie Ray (SF) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 2.93/3.32 | ERA /xERA | 2.83/4.24 |
| 3.76/4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34/3.59 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 39.1% | GB% | 55.6% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 95 | Location+ | 101 |
My Giants vs Mets Betting Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Bullpen Rebuild After Trade Deadline
These two teams have gotten very familiar with one another over the past week as the Mets went into San Francisco and swept the Giants last weekend.
However, that is not to say that the two teams were not also trade partners in a deal that sent Tyler Rogers to New York ahead of this series.
Speaking of the trade deadline, the Giants sold heavily over the past few days, and their bullpen has an entirely new look.
So, with roles undefined and new arms entering the fray, I'm going to focus on their starter tonight, Robbie Ray.
Ray returned to All-Star form this season, entering this start boasting a 2.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
He's been excellent at generating whiffs, but is due to regress a bit as contact made against him has generally been hard. An xERA of 3.32 and xFIP of 4.02 suggest a step back is nearing.
However, that step back is unlikely to come tonight as he faces a Mets lineup that has been cold of late and has had season-long struggles against lefties. Over the last two weeks, the Mets have a wRC+ of just 81.
Then, against lefties, they rank 18th in wRC+, 20th in OPS, and 30th in BABIP. While the Metropolitans are due to turn things around, it's much more likely that Ray contains them in the early part of this matchup.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Look to Bounce Back Behind Reliable Peterson
Speaking of the Metropolitans, they were aggressive at the deadline as their deal with the Giants was just one of four big moves made to push this team over the hump.
The Mets lost their momentum from a seven-game winning streak as they were swept by the Padres, but returning home with a renovated roster could give them a spark.
If you're looking for consistency on this Mets team, look no further than David Peterson.
Peterson enters with a 2.83 ERA and has recorded an out in the sixth inning in all but three of his outings this season.
He has been reliable and kept the Mets in nearly every outing, even when the bats have run cold.
We should expect him to do the same tonight, as the Giants have been one of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching.
San Francisco is last in batting average, 29th in OPS, and 25th in wRC+ against lefties this season.
With Peterson showing no signs of slowing down, it's no wonder he has an implied probability of 62.3% to complete six innings of work tonight.
Giants vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup has all the makings of a pitcher's duel between two of the National League's best lefties.
Both have been excellent this season and are facing slumping lineups.
On top of that, the conditions are also set to work in their favor as the wind will be blowing straight in at Citi Field tonight.
However, with the reconfigured bullpens being a question mark, I'm opting to shorten this game by taking the under in the first five.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4
Giants vs Mets Betting Trends
