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Saturday MLB Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Plays for Alec Mills & Patrick Sandoval (July 2)

Saturday MLB Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Plays for Alec Mills & Patrick Sandoval (July 2) article feature image

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Alec Mills.

  • Tony Sartori uses the Action Labs Props Tool to break down his two favorite prop plays for Saturday's MLB slate.
  • He's eying two plays for pitchers Alec Mills and Patrick Sandoval.
  • Check out his picks and analysis below.

We’re aiming to start this holiday weekend on the right foot with two pitcher props that need opposite results. First, we’ll head to Houston, where the Astros will have to deal with a breakout starter who may have their number. Lastly, we’ll round out the evening in Chicago, where the Cubbies may have to get the bullpen going early against Boston.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Angels vs. AstrosAstros -155
First Pitch4:10 p.m. ET
Best Line:DraftKings

We saw Christian Javier dominate in game one of this series with a 14-strikeout performance. Now it’s time for the Angels to punch back with Patrick Sandoval on the mound.

Sandoval came into the season with breakout written all over him, and he has delivered on those expectations. He enters this start with a 2.63 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning. While he excels in creating soft contact, he can also miss plenty of bats as he ranks in the top-30 percent of all qualified pitchers in Whiff Rate.

The Astros are not a club that will typically strike out against left-handed pitching as they actually have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the majors, but Sandoval has proven he’s no typical lefty. He faced the Astros in his second start of the year and struck out five in four shutout innings of work. Also, Sandoval has gone over this number in eight of his 12 starts. So if we can get five innings out of him, this should cash without a sweat.

Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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Alec Mills Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110)

Red Sox vs. CubsRed Sox -140
First Pitch7:15 p.m. ET
Best Line: DraftKings

The total in the Windy City has fallen from 10 to 9.5 since opening, but that does not mean Alec Mills won’t do his part to prove the market wrong. You may remember Mills as he threw a no-hitter back in September of 2020. However, he’s been anything but lights out since then, and 2022 has been rough, to say the least.

Mills has primarily been the long man out the Chicago pen of late. He’s piggybacked off of openers and made one spot start while allowing five earned runs in four of his six outings.

He’ll make his second start of the season today against a red-hot Boston lineup that features six players with above-average xBAs, one of them being MVP candidate Rafael Devers. Boston’s bats have carried them into the playoff picture as they hold the seventh-highest wRC+ in the majors.

They face a starter in Mills who has not only allowed a ton of runs this year but has also been shelled in the process. He enters with an xBA allowed of .335 and an xSLG of .704. Mills is in trouble against Boston, and the Red Sox have the potential to double this number.

Pick: Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110)

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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