The Boston Red Sox host the Seattle Mariners on August 31, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -162 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mariners are +151 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction
- Mariners vs Red Sox Pick: Payton Tolle Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-152)
My Mariners vs Red Sox best bet is on Payton Tolle to record under 7.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Red Sox Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 -119o / -101u | +151 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +129 | 7.5 -119o / -101u | -162 |
- Mariners vs Red Sox moneyline: Mariners +151, Red Sox -162
- Mariners vs Red Sox over/under: 7.5 (-119o / -101u)
- Mariners vs Red Sox spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+129), Mariners +1.5 (-155)
Mariners vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| George Kirby (RHP, SEA) | Stat | Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-10 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 4.02/3.89 | ERA / xERA | 3.09/2.70 |
| 3.63/3.82 | FIP / xFIP | 3.20/3.63 |
| 14.9% | K-BB% | 21.0% |
| 43.7% | GB% | 35.6% |
| .334 | BABIP | .279 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 112 | Location+ | 99 |
Mariners vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Cal Raleigh has turned it on, but he gets a tough customer in Payton Tolle in Boston tonight. The young lefty has pitched to a 28% K% and a 6.9% BB% in the Majors.
You'd think that righties would have more success against him, but he has struck out righties way (31%) way more than lefties (19%).
Tolle looks like a budding ace in the Major Leagues, and this is a pretty good matchup for him against a bunch of righties on Seattle that can strike out.
All of that said, my projection model comes in with a 6.2-strikeout projection on Tolle. We know that this reverse splits stuff can't be trusted over the long haul.
A 31% K% against righties probably isn't going to stay that high, and he's also a guy who has already pushed above his innings total from last year. So the Red Sox have some reason to give him a quick hook if the game isn't going their way.
The line on Tolle is 7.5, and you can get the under for -152. That juice makes the line more on par with my projection, but the under is still recommended.
We shouldn't be betting on players as much as we should be betting on lines and odds.
Pick: Payton Tolle Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-152)
