The Detroit Tigers (59-37) and Seattle Mariners (50-45) will meet in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on ROOT Sports NW.
Seattle is a -115 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Detroit is -105 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8 total runs.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Tigers predictions for Sunday, July 13, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Mariners vs Tigers Prediction
- Mariners vs Tigers pick: Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
My Mariners vs Tigers best bet is Logan Gilbert over 17.5 outs recorded, with the best line currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Tigers Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Mariners vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) | Stat | RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 5-9 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.88/2.95 | ERA /xERA | 4.70/4.03 |
| 3.16/2.39 | FIP / xFIP | 4.24/3.65 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 29.3% | K-BB% | 19.7% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 34.4% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 113 | Location+ | 101 |
Doug Ziefel’s Mariners vs Tigers Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Power and Pitching
The Seattle Mariners have brought the lumber to Detroit, as through the first two games of this series, they have outscored them 27 to 10.
However, scoring expectations in this series finale are tempered with the Tigers handing the ball to Jack Flaherty.
While Flaherty has yet to replicate his success from 2023 in Detroit, he is due for positive regression, and the Mariners' propensity to swing and miss plays right into his strength.
Flaherty's xERA of 3.96 and xFIP of 3.53 are more telling of how he's pitched, as he is still an elite strikeout pitcher.
His strikeout rate sits in the 89th percentile, and the Mariners are 19th in strikeout rate against righties.
Given how taxed the Tigers' bullpen is from yesterday's onslaught, Seattle will likely have to contend with Flaherty for the majority of this one.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Bats Face Tall Task
On the other side of this matchup, we have another elite starting pitcher who is due for positive regression.
Logan Gilbert is the assignment for the Detroit Tigers, and he is set to be a tough one this afternoon.
Gilbert missed nearly two full months with an injury before returning in late June, and he has yet to dominate like his expected statistics say he should. His strikeout and whiff rate are in the 96th percentile, and his xERA is excellent at 2.95.
This afternoon, he'll face a Detroit lineup that has been solid against righties, but like their counterpart, is very prone to strikeouts.
The Tigers are 27th in strikeout rate against righties, and we saw George Kirby rack up six in his outing yesterday.
Strikeouts are going to be a big part of Gilbert's success today, as the one thing we have not seen from him since his return is a quality start.
Last season, Gilbert threw at least six innings in 79 percent of his starts; this year, he's hit the mark just once in his 11 outings.
However, with this being the final day before the All-Star break, and not many fresh options in the Mariners' bullpen, we should see Gilbert get stretched out here.
Mariners vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup has all the makings of a pitcher's duel as both Jack Flaherty and Logan Gilbert are due to have solid performances.
Although I'm more trusting of Gilbert in this spot, as he's been very sharp and the circumstances of his outing today have him in line to deal for as long as possible.
Back Gilbert to get back on track as he throws six quality innings at minimum.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Moneyline
The Mariners have received the market support and appear to be the side in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I lean towards the first five under.
