Sunday MLB Player Props: 3 Picks, Including Charlie Morton (May 8)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Morton.
It’s Mothers Day, and for those of you looking to do something nice for your mom, I’ve got three plus-money props that will help pad your wallet and go the extra mile.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and you can check the grades out for my plays below as well as a number of others by using it.
Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves||Braves -142|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
The Milwaukee Brewers were scorching hot until Max Fried cooled them off yesterday. Today, the Braves will throw another quality arm at them in the form of Charlie Morton.
Morton has not gotten off to the best of starts in 2022, as he’ll enter this start with a 6.85 ERA. However, this could be the start for him to turn it around as his underlying numbers show he’s due for a good outing.
Despite the high ERA, Morton has done a great job of creating soft contact. He’s in the top 25 percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel percentage.
The one thing that’s actually hurting him the most is his inability to miss bats. Morton is in the bottom 20 percent of the league in strikeout rate and whiff rate. While that may not instill much confidence in this prop, positive regression is coming.
Morton’s stuff is still there at 38 years old. His fastball is averaging 95 mph, and his curveball is still one of the best, as its spin is in the 98th percentile.
The Brewers may be swinging the bats well, but they still have a lot of whiffs in their current stretch. They’ll enter sixth in the league in strikeout rate.
This will be a bounce-back performance for Morton, and strikeouts are going to be a big part of it.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+110)
Jonathan Schoop Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
|Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros||Tigers +154|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
Jake Odorizzi has faired pretty well against the current Tigers lineup in his career, but one man has had his number for years. Jonathan Schoop and Jake Odorizzi have squared off 42 times, and Schoop has gotten the better of most of the matchups.
Schoop will enter this game 13-of-38 with one homer against Odorizzi. That’s a .342 batting average, with five of the thirteen hits going for extra bases.
The Tiger’s second baseman has been extremely cold through the first month of the season, but a familiar arm may be what he needs to get back on track.
Bet on Schoop to bust out today.
Pick: Over 1.5 (+135)
Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres||Marlins +126|
|First Pitch||4:10 p.m. ET|
Last weekend, I picked on the Padres with a pair of arms from Pittsburgh, and today, I’ve got one from Miami that’s even better.
Trevor Rogers may be in a bit of a sophomore slump to begin 2022 after a breakout 2021 season. His walks are up, and his strikeouts are down, but his stuff is essentially the same.
Rogers’ strikeout rate is currently sitting at 18.6 percent, which is a drastic drop from his rate of 28.5 from last season. The positive regression is coming in a big way for Rogers, and this number is far too low based on what he’s done in his career to this point.
Yes, Rogers hasn’t had more than four strikeouts in any start this season, but we have seen how the Marlins pitching has dominated in this series, and after last night’s shutout, it’s Rogers’ turn.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+105)