The Boston Red Sox (51-45) host the Tampa Bay Rays (50-45) on Saturday, July 12. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Rays find themselves as +165 underdogs after dropping a tough 5-4 loss in the opener, despite holding a late lead. The Red Sox, who have now won eight straight, are -200 favorites with a game total set at 8 runs.
Read our Rays vs Red Sox prediction and MLB pick below.
Rays vs Red Sox Predictions, Parlay Picks
- Rays vs Red Sox pick: Rays ML (+165)
Our Rays vs Red Sox best bet is on Tampa ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -105o / -115u | -200 |
Rays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Baz (TBR) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L | 9-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.8 |
| 4.34 / 3.76 | ERA / xERA | 2.39 / 2.92 |
| 4.45 / 3.80 | FIP / xFIP | 2.50 / 2.74 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 15.2% | K-BB% | 24.2% |
| 49.3% | GB% | 48.1% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 98 | Location+ | 97 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick, Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay will turn to Shane Baz, who owns a 3-0 record with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against Boston.
On the other side, All-Star Garrett Crochet makes his first start against the Rays, looking to close out a strong first half.
This game sets up nicely for Evan Abrams' Low Support Division Dog model.
Division underdogs like Tampa Bay, especially when backed by fewer than 30% of bets yet showing no significant line drift, often point to quiet confidence from sharp bettors.
Add the divisional familiarity and underdog value on a team with the better starting pitcher in the matchup, and the model says we should expect the Rays to bounce back.
Pick: Rays ML (+165)
