The Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers on August 1, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RSN.
The Rangers are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rangers vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rangers vs Astros Prediction
- Rangers vs Astros Pick: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-135), 2.03u | Bet to -200
My Rangers vs Astros best bet is on Texas to be winning after the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rangers vs Astros Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -120 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +110 |
- Rangers vs Astros moneyline: Rangers -120, Astros +110
- Rangers vs Astros over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -120u)
- Rangers vs Astros spread: Rangers -1.5 (+138), Astros +1.5 (-166)
Rangers vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP Jacob deGrom (TEX) | Stat | RHP Ronel Blanco (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.67/3.54 | ERA / xERA | 8.10/ |
| 3.25/3.13 | FIP / xFIP | 7.70/4.33 |
| 24.2% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 35.1% | GB% | 34.8% |
| .285 | BABIP | .105 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 108 | Location+ | 106 |
Rangers vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Let’s just say I’ve never bought into Ronel Blanco. In 284 career innings, he has a 3.61 ERA with all estimators above four, due to a .236 BABIP and 79.8 LOB%.
He’s been smoked in two starts this year, allowing nine runs in 10 innings with four home runs on five barrels, while walking six of 41 batters faced with 12 strikeouts.
His contact neutral estimators are in line with career rates (4.29 SIERA, 4.33 xFIP) with a 6.82 xERA.
Perhaps more reliable in such a small sample, pitch modeling sees a 4.49 Bot ERA and 99 Pitching+.
If you want to use projections, they’re half-way between four and a half and five too (see BARTOLO below).
Jacob deGrom may not be what he once was, but his 3.67 ERA exceeds estimators that only run as high as a 3.55 xERA and mostly land a half run better than actual results.
Overall, I give deGrom more than a run and a half edge on Blanco.
The projected Houston lineup averages a 108 wRC+ at home, 102 against RHP and 103 over the last 30 days. They don’t have a lot of LHBs, but deGrom has a very small split with batters from both sides of the plate just a bit below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA.
The projected Texas lineup averages a 115 wRC+ on the road, 105 against RHP and 122 over the last 30 days. That latter number includes BARTOLO’s first six projected batters above 125. The Texas lineup is also the deepest it’s been all season with the returns of Seager and both Langford and Carter in the lineup.
Defensively, the same projected players give Texas a 22 FRV edge and also an 11 BRR (Base Running Runs) on the bases.
Finally, the Astros do have the better bullpen and by quite a bit whether you’re using BARTOLO or last 30 day estimators.
Rangers vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
Not that the full game is a bad play, but I’m seeing a much larger edge on the F5 number and yes, that’s not a typo below, I’m playing to win 1.5u.
This seems like one of the larger edges of the season.
Pick: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-135), 2.03u | Bet to -200
