Tigers vs Yankees Odds & Prediction: Bet Underdog Detroit

The latest Tigers vs Yankees odds for Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium have the Yankees as -175 moneyline favorites, with an over/under of 7.5.

Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt has been a solid starter for a few years now, but his peripherals in 2024 are not encouraging. He has always had issues with opponents hitting him hard, and his walk rate is nothing to write home about this year either.

Schmidt's opponent Saturday will be Casey Mize and the Tigers. Mize has not blown hitters away this year with strikeouts. Instead, the former No. 1 overall pick has excelled with keeping the ball on the ground and rarely walking anyone.

Since the Tigers have the better pitcher going, they should be able to match the Yankees' lineup with their patience and ability to get the ball in the air.

Let's take a closer look below and offer a Tigers vs Yankees prediction on the moneyline for Saturday.

Mize is starting to live up to the hype. The 27-year-old ranks in the 74th percentile in ground-ball rate, but does yield some hard contact. That said, ground-ball pitchers will always be in better shape with hard contact, as those balls could be hit directly at infielders. Singles are also better than home runs and doubles.

Mize's 3.08 ERA is a result of a walk rate under 6% and the aforementioned ground balls. That is why his xERA is 3.53.

The Tigers have a team wRC+ off righties of 91, but they have a 9% walk rate, accompanied with a 24.6% strikeout rate. They have seven bats above a .305 xwOBA and six above the .315 mark. Those are not exceptional numbers, but they tell the story that there is more than enough to get the job done with a pitcher who can struggle with command, like Schmidt.

The Tigers have four relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. Jason Foley locks things down in the back end with Alex Lange and Andrew Chafin. Lange and Will Vest have 4.01 xFIPs, so Detroit has the edge in the bullpen department.

Use Action’s ESPN BET promo code for a new-user welcome before betting on Tigers-Yanks!

Schmidt has a walk rate over 10% this year. He did not have as many issues with walks last year, but in his career, that issue has typically loomed large. In addition, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate are below average, meaning he does not hold much of an edge here over Mize. Paired with hard contact, his ground-ball rate is not strong either.

All of the above ingredients have led to a 4.65 xERA for Schmidt. So, his 3.19 ERA likely will not stand for long.

The Yankees are better at hitting righties than the Tigers. They have a 10.4% walk rate, 20.4% strikeout rate and 120 wRC+ off righties. They also have six bats above a .330 xwOBA and two others above .305 against righties.

That being said, Mize does not walk anyone. Since Schmidt yields so many fly balls, the Tigers — who rarely hit the ball on the ground as a team — will hold an edge in this department. The lineup discrepancy is much smaller than would be expected for the Yankees, since they're facing Mize and the Tigers are getting Schmidt.

The Yankees have had issues in relief, as well. Their bullpen has a collective strikeout rate a touch over 20% with a 4.26 xFIP. They also only have three arms below a 4.00 xFIP.

The Tigers are not the better hitting team against righties, but Mize will keep the Yankees' hitters in check by inducing grounders and rarely walking them. Schmidt, meanwhile, might accrue pitches against a patient Tigers lineup. Detroit has the better bullpen, so they have value in this game on the road.

Take the Tigers on the moneyline from +142 to +115.

Pick: Tigers ML +142 (Bet to +115)