The Cleveland Guardians host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 26, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNET and MLB.TV.
The Blue Jays took the first game of this series yesterday with a 10-6 win, but today, Max Scherzer will make his return. The Toronto ace will square off against the Guardians' Gavin Williams.
Find my Blue Jays vs Guardians prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction
- Blue Jays vs. Guardians Pick: Under 8 (-105 · BetMGM)
My Guardians vs. Blue Jays best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -115o / -105u | +100 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -115o / -105u | -120 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Max Scherzer (TOR) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 5-3 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 6.00/12.00 | ERA /xERA | 3.58/4.37 |
| 11.08/5.85 | FIP / xFIP | 4.49/4.13 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.42 |
| 9.1 | K-BB% | 11.0 |
| 20.0 | GB% | 44.1 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 122 | Location+ | 92 |
Blue Jays vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
The spotlight will be on Max Scherzer's return to action after he left the team in March due to a well-known issue in his career: a right thumb injury.
The Toronto starter already experienced discomfort during Spring Training, and it showed in his only outing this season against the Orioles on March 29, when he allowed two solo homers in a shortened three-inning start.
How will Scherzer perform? It depends a lot on his fitness, but the future Hall of Famer has all the credit his career can give him, and he showed solid velocity in his Triple-A rehab outings.
On the other side, Cleveland has the solid Gavin Williams. The Guardians pitcher has been great recently, posting a 1.99 ERA in June.
He's also coming off an excellent start against the Giants with only two hits allowed and six strikeouts in six scoreless innings.
Neither offense is elite against right-handers, with the Blue Jays ranking 15th and the Guardians 22nd among MLB teams in wRC+, with 103 and 96.
Progressive Field ranks 23rd in Baseball Savant's Park Factors when it comes to run production, and there is also a weather angle from Bet Labs' "Public Fades Humidity = Unders" system, which aligns with the under recommendation for this game.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45% to 95% — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate below 40%, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remaining modest, between 6% and 29%.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
