The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 7, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on YES.
After splitting the first two games, the Blue Jays and Yankees will send Max Scherzer and Max Fried to the mound, respectively, for this series finale.
Find my MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Yankees pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Max Sherzer (TOR) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 15-5 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.8 |
| 4.11 / 4.30 | ERA / xERA | 2.98 / 3.67 |
| 4.93 / 4.64 | FIP / xFIP | 3.23 / 3.53 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 16.3 | K-BB% | 16.4 |
| 26.2 | GB% | 52.1 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 107 | Location+ | 102 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees Preview
There were 12 runs scored in the previous two games of this series, with only four in yesterday's Yankees victory.
Max Fried is in the mix of AL Cy Young candidates, although Tarik Skubal and Garret Crochet seem to have the advantage. That won't stop the Yankees' lefty from trying to finish strong after an excellent season, as his last three outings show.
Fried has allowed one run or none in each of his past three starts, going six or seven innings in every one of them. He gave up just four hits in each against the Red Sox, Nationals and Astros.
Fried's splits also favor him today. The southpaw has a 2.34 ERA at home and 2.65 in day games.
On the other side, Max Scherzer is not a Cy Young candidate anymore, but he is still delivering the goods. The Blue Jays starter has a 3.43 ERA in his last seven outings and much better splits on the road (3.60 ERA) and in day games (3.77) than at home (4.50) and at night (4.38).
Scherzer will face a Yankees lineup that has dipped in production this week, ranking 17th in wRC+ among all major league teams.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under.
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support", is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular season games from 2019 to 2025, where the closing total lands between 8 and 10—sweet spots for scoring volatility.
It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under. This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends. Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a high sample size and strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Betting Trends
