MLB Player Props Odds & Picks: 2 Bets for Alek Manoah & Jose Altuve
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Altuve (Astros)
If you’re looking to add some extra action to your MLB betting card today, check out these two plus-money props that our projection systems love.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Alek Manoah Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
|Blue Jays @ Orioles|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
The Orioles went out and smoked the Blue Jays Monday, with the bats putting together one of the better offensive performances of the season in a 7-4 win.
That was against Yusei Kikuchi, otherwise known as the biggest meatballer in baseball. Things will go differently against Alek Manoah.
Manoah is one of the most effective starting pitchers in baseball. His four-pitch mix has produced elite batted-ball stats and kept his ERA below 2.50. His Baseball Savant page gives me plenty of confidence entering this matchup:
Image credit: Baseball Savant
You may notice Manoah’s strikeouts are down. While that has been an unfortunate wrinkle for him this season, there are three reasons I’m not worried.
First, Manoah has cruised past Baltimore in the past. He’s made five career starts against the O’s and recorded at least six strikeouts in all five, totaling 29 strikeouts in just 22 1/3 innings (11.7 K/9). He’s picked up a 33% CSW rate in those starts, too.
Second, the O’s haven’t been immune to the strikeout recently. Baltimore has allowed seven of the last 10 pitchers it has faced to go over their listed strikeout total.
Finally, the projections love Manoah today. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Manoah for a whopping 7.0 Ks Tuesday, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 5.7.
And we can still bet over 5.5 at plus-money. DraftKings is offering over 4.5 at -165, and we still project value there as well, but I prefer the plus-money number.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+114)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Jose Altuve over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
|Rangers @ Astros|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
Jose Altuve has been on a mini-hot streak, having slashed .412/.474/.559 over his last 10 with an OPS over 1.000. As a result, he’s cashed his bases total six times in the last 10 games, with 19 bases in total during the streak.
I think Altuve mashes Martin Perez today.
Altuve has been unstoppable against southpaws this season. He has an absurd 212 wRC+ against the side with a .391 ISO. Altuve has smacked 18 extra-base hits in just 102 PAs against that side, good for an 18% rate.
Altuve has done well historically against Perez, as well. While the Astros second baseman is just 13-for-49 lifetime against the southpaw (.265 BA), seven of those hits were doubles (.408 SLG) and Altuve has whiffed fewer than 13% of the time. Plus, his 92 mph avg. exit velpcity at 10-degree avg. launch angle has produced expected statistics that indicate positive regression (.277 xBA, .463 xSLG).
I’m expecting at least one extra-base hit for Altuve against Perez tonight. And if he can’t make it happen against the starter, he’ll have a solid chance against a Texas bullpen that ranks in the back-half of the league in xFIP this season.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+110)
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