The Milwaukee Brewers (55-40) and Washington Nationals (38-57) will meet in the MLB this afternoon. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on MASN2.
The Brewers are -245 favorites to complete a home sweep of the Nationals, with Washington listed as a +200 underdog. The over/under is set at 8.5 total runs.
Continue below for my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Brewers predictions for Sunday, July 13, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Nationals vs Brewers Prediction
- Nationals vs Brewers pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
My Nationals vs Brewers best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Brewers Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -245 |
Nationals vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jake Irvin (WSN) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 4.78/5.47 | ERA /xERA | 2.74/3.56 |
| 5.34/4.69 | FIP / xFIP | 3.69/3.99 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 8.7% | K-BB% | 17.4% |
| 42.1% | GB% | 37.0% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 106 | Location+ | 101 |
Nationals vs Brewers Preview, Picks
Milwaukee won Game 1 of this series by a score of 8-3, and then walked off Game 2 with a dramatic 6-5 victory, marking back-to-back overs and their sixth straight win overall.
While that offensive momentum could draw public money toward another over, this matchup fits a powerful system: Evan Abrams' "Sunday Unders on Over Streak" model.
This system isolates Sunday day games in which the home team is coming off 1–2 consecutive overs, especially in the final game of a series.
These spots often come with lineup downgrades —whether due to rest, travel, or fatigue— and a natural tendency for offenses to regress after high-output games.
Add in the relatively high total (8.5), and the under becomes a sharp play.
The starting pitching matchup also strengthens this case.
Milwaukee sends out All-Star Freddy Peralta for his team-leading 20th start of the season, while Washington counters with Jake Irvin, who has quietly been one of the best day-game arms in baseball.
Irvin owns a 2.92 ERA with a .191 opponent batting average across six daytime starts.
Nationals vs Brewers Best Bet
- Under 8.5 (-115)
Nationals vs Brewers Betting Trends
