Wednesday MLB NRFI Odds & Picks: Proven First-Inning Starters, Weather Give Red Sox vs. White Sox Value (May 25)

Wednesday MLB NRFI Odds & Picks: Proven First-Inning Starters, Weather Give Red Sox vs. White Sox Value (May 25) article feature image

Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito.

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.

Marlins vs. Rays — No Runs First Inning (-145)

MatchupRed Sox (Hill) vs. White Sox (Giolito)
First Pitch8:10 p.m. ET
Best LineFanDuel

On Wednesday, we look to take a NRFI between two veteran American League pitchers with the weather on their side today.

Surprisingly, Rich Hill is a top-tier NRFI pitcher. Since 2020, the southpaw is 37-9 to the NRFI across four teams.

Against 28 first-inning batters this season, Hill has only issued one walk and allowed six hits holding hitters to a .222 average. Hill is also limiting opposing leadoff hitters to a .143 average. That has resulted in a 5-2 NRFI record.

Hill performs best for the NRFI in non-division games, in which he's 20-7 since 2020.

Here is how Hill has fared against the hitters he's likely to face tonight on the south side of Chicago:

  • AJ Pollock: 4-for-21
  • Tim Anderson: 0-for-2
  • Jose Abreu: 1-for-3

Also, projected No. 2 hitter Yoan Moncada has just two hits in his last 25 at-bats.

Like Hill, Lucas Giolito has enjoyed significant NRFI success, going 30-8 since the start of last season.

This year, against 29 first-inning batters, Giolito has only given up six hits. He's holding teams No. 1 and No. 2 hitters to .125 and .154 averages. Good for a combined 4-for-29. In non-division games since the 2020 season, Giolito is 19-4 to the NRFI.

Here is how Giolito has fared against some of his matchups today in the past:

  • Xander Bogaerts: 2-for-8
  • Rafael Devers: 1-for-5
  • J.D. Martinez: 5-for-10

Also, leadoff hitter Enrique Hernandez is only hitting .180 against right-handed pitching in 2022. Alex Verdugo, who is projected to bat fifth, is only slashing for a .185 average in May.

With slight rain and 13 mph wind blowing toward home plate, look for these NRFI winners to continue their success tonight.

As always, six outs to glory…

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