Wednesday MLB NRFI Odds, Picks: Sandy Alcantara & Merrill Kelly Have First-Inning Value

Wednesday MLB NRFI Odds, Picks: Sandy Alcantara & Merrill Kelly Have First-Inning Value article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara.

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.

Wednesday NRFI Pick

MatchupSandy Alcantara (Marlins) vs. Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
First Pitch3:40 p.m. ET

On Wednesday, we will take the NRFI between two of the league's worst hitting teams.

Merrill Kelly is a slightly above-average NRFI pitcher, but he’s very good at home. In 2022, he has faced 25 first-inning batters and allowed just two walks and five hits.

Kelly is 23-10 to the NRFI since the 2021 season and 2-4 in 2022. His NRFI split is significantly better when he’s playing a non-division opponent. Kelly is 26-8 to the NRFI since 2019, and 14-2 at home in that same split.

Since 2019, Kelly is 2-0 to the NRFI against the Marlins. Here is how he has fared against these Marlins:

  • Jorge Soler: 0-for-2
  • Garrett Cooper: 0-for-3
  • Miguel Rojas: 2-for-6
  • Avisail Garcia: 3-for-5
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These Marlins bats since April 15 have only hit .171 on the road in the first inning. In 35 at-bats, they have a 33.3% strikeout rate in the first inning.

Sandy Alcantara has great NRFI numbers, going 30-9 to the NRFI since the start of last season. Against 26 first-inning batters in 2022, he has only allowed four hits and five walks, making him 2-4 to the NRFI to start the season.

Like Kelly, Alcantara also thrives playing non-division opponents. Since 2020 he is 26-4 to the NRFI.

Alcantara has had recent success against the Diamondbacks, holding the edge in a few key matchups:

  • David Peralta: 0-for-6
  • Pavin Smith: 0-for-3
  • Nick Ahmed: 1-for-6

The Diamondbacks bats are holding true to their low preseason expectations. Since April 15, they're 27th in the MLB in first-inning batting average at home.

Look for these pitchers to take advantage of these poor hitting teams. Take the NRFI between the Marlins and Diamondbacks.

As always six outs to glory…

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