White Sox vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offenses Should Shine Against Lance Lynn, Triston McKenzie (Friday, August 19)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Lance Lynn
- The Guardians are slight favorites at home tonight against the White Sox.
- Triston McKenzie takes the mound for Cleveland, while Chicago will counter with Lance Lynn.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
White Sox vs. Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (+100/-120) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The White Sox come into this matchup licking its wounds a bit after losing 21-5 to the Houston Astros. However, the White Sox were able to salvage a split from the AL's best team. Chicago has won five out of seven games overall and will now head to Cleveland for a huge series against the Guardians.
The Guardians enjoyed an off day on Thursday following a split of a four-game series with the Detroit Tigers. The Guardians are 11-6 in the month of August and have won six of its last nine games overall. Cleveland has ascended into first place in the American League and has a 2.5-game lead over the rival White Sox.
Friday's game will be the first of six remaining meetings in the season series. While the implications in the AL Central race are huge, the value may be on the total in this matchup.
Which Lynn Will White Sox Get?
Lance Lynn will get the ball for the White Sox and he has struggled to regain his form over the last few seasons. Lynn finished in the top six of the AL Cy Young Award voting in each of the last three seasons, including a third place finish last year. This season, Lynn is 3-5 with a 5.62 ERA. He ranks in the 32nd percentile or worse in average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, and hard hit percentage.
Lynn has been a bit better in August. He is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 18 innings. In his last start against the Guardians, he tossed six scoreless innings. However, the last time he faced them in Cleveland, he allowed eight runs on nine hits in four innings. Lynn is 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA in five road starts this season.
Chicago will create a ton of traffic on the base paths for opposing pitchers. It ranks third in the league in team batting average. However, that has not always translated to the scoreboard. The White Sox rank 17th in runs scored. In the last week. They have scored at least four runs in five out of its last games and have had success against Triston McKenzie.
Yasmani Grandal and Eloy Jimenez are both hitting over .300 against McKenzie. Seby Zavala has two home runs off McKenzie in five at-bats. Jose Abreu is 2-for-8 against McKenzie but he has been scorching hot of late. Over his last seven games, he is hitting .458 with one home run, three runs batted in, and .958 OPS.
Guardians Led Offensively By Ramirez
Jose Ramirez carried the Guardians offense over the first few months of the season. While his batting average has come down a bit, he remains a menace with runners in scoring position.
Ramirez has 10 runs batted in over his last seven games and he ranks third in the American League with 98 runs batted in for the season. He could be in line for a big night as he is hitting for .348 with three home runs and seven runs batted in his career against Lynn.
Part of the reason Ramirez has so many runs batted in is because he has Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario to set the table in front of him. Kwan is hitting .303 for the year and .349 over his last 30 games. He has at least one hit in 28 of his last 30 games.
Rosario is hitting .284 on the year with eight home runs and 50 runs batted in. He has seven runs scored and five RBI in his last seven games. Andres Gimenez adds length to the bottom of the lineup. He is hitting .359 with five home runs, 16 runs batted and eight stolen bases in his last 30 games.
McKenzie has turned in a strong season with a 3.14 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 134 2/3 innings. He has been excellent over his last seven starts with a 2.09 ERA and 0.93. However, he has been a bit fortunate as well. McKenzie has an xERA of 4.04. He ranks eighth percentile in both barrel rate and average exit velocity. He also ranks in the 28th in hard hit percentage.
White Sox-Guardians Pick
Lynn and McKenzie have combined to make four starts against the White Sox and Guardians this season. There has been at least nine runs scored in three of those games.
Lynn has been pitching better of late, but he has struggled on the road this season, including in Cleveland. McKenzie's metrics suggest that the White Sox will be create solid scoring opportunities against him. If the White Sox take advantage of those opportunities, they will push across a couple of runs against him.
Whether the runs come off the starters, there should be runs in this game. While the Guardians got Thursday off, the White Sox have used seven different relievers over the last two games. If Lynn struggles early and the Guardians get him out of the game, the floodgates could open.
Only needing eight runs to cash, I will be backing the over in this spot.
Pick: Over 7.5
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