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MLB Odds, Picks: White Sox vs Guardians Betting Preview (Thursday, September 15)

MLB Odds, Picks: White Sox vs Guardians Betting Preview (Thursday, September 15) article feature image
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Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lance Lynn (33).

  • The Guardians host the White Sox in a matchup with big playoff implications.
  • Lance Lynn gets the ball for Chicago and Hunter Gaddis will get the start for Cleveland.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.

Updated White Sox vs. Guardians Odds

White Sox Odds -150
Guardians Odds +130
Over/Under 7.5 (-100/-115)
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The American League Central race has been heating up. The Chicago White Sox have a fighter’s chance after Miguel Cairo took over the managerial duties and the club went on a run in Tony La Russa’s absence (medical condition). The Cleveland Guardians seem to be winning the right games, even after the White Sox went 5-2 on their recent road trip to Seattle and Oakland.

These two will face each other in a makeup game on Thursday afternoon. Lance Lynn will pitch for the White Sox. He has been a steady horse and looks like the Lance Lynn of 2021. He owns a 4.07 ERA and a 3.67 xERA on the season. He ranks in the top-40% of MLB in Average Exit Velocity and in the 99th percentile in Walk Rate. In the second half, he is about as good as a starter can get with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP.

Cleveland will call up Hunter Gaddis for a spot start. Gaddis is an above average strikeout pitcher who struggles with control at times. Luckily for him, he is facing a White Sox team that ranks second-to-last in Chase Rate and walks this season. Given that only a few of the Chicago hitters have excelled lately off of righties, Gaddis should not allow too much damage.

Taking the under in this game is the correct call. Look for a tight battle in this division rivalry.

Chicago White Sox: Lynn, Pitching Staff Can Lead Chicago

Lynn is one of the most consistent arms in the American League. After settling in upon his return from the Injured List, Lynn has been cruising. He is a veteran who understands the magnitude of this game for the White Sox and will pitch up to the moment.

Cleveland also only has three hitters above a .325 xwOBA off of righties since August 15. They have dinked their way to victory, but most of that is a testament to strong pitching. No one in this lineup has an average exit velocity above 90 mph during that timeframe. Lynn just needs to avoid the big bats in the middle in José Ramírez, Josh Naylor and Oscar González. There’s a reason the Guardians have an 84 wRC+ (27th in MLB) off of righties in the past month.

The White Sox have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP out of the bullpen and Cairo will certainly use his best arms in this crucial game. Liam Hendriks and Kendall Graveman will definitely be pitching.

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Cleveland Guardians: Expect Gaddis to Have Success

In addition to issuing walks, Gaddis also has trouble keeping the ball on the ground. In AA and AAA, his ground-ball rate hovered around 25%. This is not ideal when facing hard hitters such as Eloy Jiménez and José Abreu.

Still, those two and Luis Robert are the only Sox hitters eclipsing a .325 xwOBA. Much like the Guardians, the rest of the lineup drops off significantly.

Even if Gaddis plays as an opener for a couple innings, the Guardians have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They have a 3.28 xFIP with five arms below a 4.00 xFIP. They will have enough relievers behind Gaddis to prevent the Sox from scoring.

White Sox-Guardians Pick

Neither of these teams hit right-handers very well. They both have sub-100 wRC+ in the past month. Lynn will look like a savvy veteran on Thursday and Gaddis might surprise some hitters in the Sox order. The bullpens also have solid weapons once the starters exit the game. Take the under at 8.5 (-115), and play it to 7.5 (-115).

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) | play to 7.5 (-115)

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