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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for White Sox vs Mariners: Expect Fireworks Between AL Contenders

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for White Sox vs Mariners: Expect Fireworks Between AL Contenders article feature image
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Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: AJ Pollock and Elvis Andrus

  • The Mariners are small home favorites for this evening's matchup with the White Sox.
  • Seattle sends Logan Gilbert to the mound, while Chicago will counter with Johnny Cueto.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

White Sox vs. Mariners Odds

White Sox Odds +130
Mariners Odds -150
Over/Under 7.5
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Most people would have been shocked if you told them in April that come September the White Sox would be 7.5 games out of a the AL wild-card race and chasing down the Mariners.

Seattle sits 76-59 and has a five-game lead over Baltimore, which is currently the first team back. Chicago is just one game above .500 and is more likely focused on the AL Central race, where it is two games behind Cleveland in a packed race that includes Minnesota.

No matter what stretch of games you’re looking at, the Mariners have the best record in the American League since June 1, since July 1 and since August 1. Chicago has finished below .500 in every month except May, but is 4-1 so far this month, including taking the first game of this series, 3-2 on Monday.

Cueto Solid For White Sox

What a resurgence this year has been for Johnny Cueto. The 36-year-old received only a minor-league contract to start the year. He was pitching for the Charlotte Knights when the White Sox selected his contract on May 16.

In 20 games for Chicago he has posted a 2.93 ERA and has allowed more than three runs just twice all year. His xERA is a little higher at 3.84 and he isn’t going to strike anybody out, but Cueto throws strikes, and he limits hard contact.

Injuries have crippled the White Sox offense throughout the entire season. The big names have all missed time and resulted in an offense that is just league average on the year. Tim Anderson is still out but his replacement, Elvis Andrus, is batting .367 with three home runs and nine RBIs in the last week.

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Gilbert Inconsistent For Mariners

Former first-round pick Logan Gilbert started the season looking like a superstar in his first full season in the big leagues. He was the AL Player of Month in April and went into the All-Star break 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA.

However, regression caught up to him a little bit recently.

Since the All-Star break, Gilbert is 1-2 with a 4.84 ERA. He has a bad stretch and two horrific outings in a row but has since settled back down a bit. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last three outings, including a six inning shutout with a season-high nine strikeouts in his last start.

Last season, the Mariners’ offense was the best in the league in high leverage situations, often pulling out improbable comebacks. This year, they have been more consistent throughout the entire game and rank top 10 in the league in wRC+.

Superstar rookie Julio Rodriguez leads the team with a .348 wOBA and has hit 23 home runs.

White Sox-Mariners Pick

Both of these pitchers continue to be candidates for negative regression. Cueto is 36-years-old and has a 3.83 xERA, almost a full run higher than his current ERA.

Gilbert has a 4.08 xERA, and has been much worse over the second half of the year. He has been striking out fewer batters and giving up more hard contact.

Over the last month, Seattle’s offense ranks 11th in the league in wRC+ and the White Sox’s offense has popped up to fifth in that rank. Both of these teams are top 10 in barrel rate.

I don’t love it, but I think over 7.5 is the best play in this game between two teams still fighting for a playoff position.

Pick:  Over 7.5

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