White Sox vs Rays Odds, Expert Pick for Saturday, April 22 | MLB Prediction Today
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane McClanahan.
- The Tampa Bay Rays host the Chicago White Sox for the second game of their series at Tropicana Field.
- The Rays walked off the White Sox on Friday night, and now they turn to Shane McClanahan to counter Dylan Cease.
- Continue reading for a White Sox vs. Rays preview and betting pick.
White Sox vs. Rays Odds
|White Sox Odds|
-120 / -100
-120 / -100
Two favorites to claim the A.L. Cy Young Award will go head-to-head on Saturday in a tremendous matchup between Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox and Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays. Moreover, Tampa Bay looks to move to 12-0 at Tropicana Field.
Cease is off to a strong start for Chicago, brandishing a 2.02 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. The Rays’ counter, McClanahan, boasts an even more impressive 1.57 ERA in 23 innings.
The White Sox lineup is particularly dangerous versus left-handed pitching. Fortunately for Chicago, it draws that favorable split today versus McClanahan.
Dating back to the start of last season, Chicago has hit to a wRC+ of 117 versus lefties. Tim Anderson’s absence from the lineup hurts, but it still features a number of lefty-killers led by Luis Robert.
White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease has followed up his incredible 2022 campaign with a 2.02 ERA and 3.20 xERA in his first 22 1/3 innings. His xERA and 49.1% hard-hit rate are somewhat concerning, but the early-season sample size is still small — likely not worth reading into too deeply at this point.
Cease’s more legitimate concern has been a lack of command — something we are not used to seeing from him in particular. He has walked 12.1% of batters faced, including four batters in his most recent appearance versus the Baltimore Orioles.
Tampa Bay’s incredible offensive start continued Friday, as it kept its impressive home unbeaten streak alive with a three-run ninth inning.
The Rays have now hit to an incredible +158 wRC+ and .390 wOBA. Tampa leads baseball with it’s .370 xwOBA and .506 xSLG rate.
At some point regression is likely to kick in. Tampa’s league-best splits versus right-handed pitching may be one such area. The Rays hit to an 11th-best 105 wRC+ versus righties last season and are likely a modest “sell-high” candidate in that regard.
Shane McClanahan has looked true to form with a 1.56 ERA and 2.71 xERA to start the season. Moreover, his walk-to-strikeout ratio is down due to a 12% BB rate.
White Sox vs. Rays Betting Pick
Chicago has hit to incredible splits versus left-handed pitching in a large sample size. That should continue moving forward, and it will make a tough challenge for the Rays’ McClanahan.
Cease has been one of the best pitchers in baseball during the last two seasons and has been sharp to start the 2023 campaign. He is a downgrade compared to a McClanahan, but the start of this contest seems more marginal than the prices suggest.
Given how strongly Chicago has hit against lefties, its +150 odds to win the first five innings highly weight the perceived pitching edge of McClanahan over Cease. However, I see value with the underdog Sox to creep out to an early lead.
Nevertheless, Chicago’s bullpen has been a complete disaster — and it would not be surprising if Tampa put together another late surge. The Rays bullpen is also fairly taxed right now and likely will not have some key arms available.
The White Sox vs. Rays game total of 7 seems fairly low considering the bullpen situation. Furthermore, it is reasonably probable that Chicago will hang some runs up on McClanahan.
- Chicago White Sox First Five Innings +150
- Game Total Over 7 -115
Pick: Over 7 (-115) or better
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