World Series Game 1 Prediction, Odds | Diamondbacks vs Rangers Pick
Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi
Diamondbacks vs Rangers Game 1 Odds, Predictions
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+142 | 8 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -146 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-168 | 8 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +122 |
Zac Gallen vs. Nathan Eovaldi (full projections here)
Season-long metrics prefer Zac Gallen and would give Arizona the starting pitching advantage in this matchup. However, the two pitchers have trended in opposite directions during the playoffs.
Nathan Eovaldi's season-long numbers are tainted by a disastrous second half, when he returned prematurely from injury while pitching at reduced velocity. The veteran righty posted a 103 Stuff+ and 100 Pitching+ before his IL stint (100 being league average), compared to a 97 Stuff+ and 91 Pitching+ figure after returning to the Rangers' rotation for the stretch run.
However, he looks back near total health and effectiveness in the playoffs, averaging 95 mph or higher in all of his playoff starts (sat closer to 94 mph over the final two months of the regular season) while posting a 30%+ called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) in three of four outings (22% in Game 7 against Houston).
Among Arizona's lineup, only Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (7-for-18, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K), Evan Longoria (3-for-12, 2 BB, 3 K), and Tommy Pham (2-for-6, 0 BB, 2 K) have seen Eovaldi before.
Gallen faced the Rangers twice this season, dropping a 6-4 decision in Arlington in May (5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K) and recording a 6-3 win at home in August (6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 11 K). He's limited their lineup to a .665 OPS in 89 plate appearances (24.6% K-BB%).
Still, while Eovaldi has ramped back up to full effectiveness in the playoffs (2.89 xFIP), Gallen has struggled with his command in the playoffs (13 K, 9 BB, and a pair of wild pitches in 22 1/3 innings) while allowing a postseason-high six home runs. And he's been a consistent regression candidate all season.
As a result, I do give Eovaldi a very slight edge (by about a tenth of a run on a projected ERA) between these two starting pitchers for Game 1 — having both upgraded Eovaldi and downgraded Gallen in the playoffs relative to their season-long metrics.
I also like both pitchers to go relatively deep into this game, with both of their bullpens having worked extensively in the prior series. Even if one of these pitchers falls behind, I expect their manager to push them for innings and outs in what could be another long series.
Bet Eovaldi Over 15.5 Outs and Gallen Over 15.5 Outs — to -135 and +100, respectively — for Game 1.
The bullpen battle should also be highly competitive, like the starting pitching matchups throughout this series. And I expect to favor the Diamondbacks if both teams deploy a bullpen game in Game 4. I prefer their high-leverage relievers.
While the Rangers have several relievers to neutralize Corbin Carroll, their high-leverage group projects much better against lefties than righties — and they have fewer true relievers and more converted starting pitchers compared to the Diamondbacks as depth options for the middle innings.
As you might expect, both bullpens have overachieved this postseason. Arizona has a 3.31 ERA and a 4.25 xFIP; Texas has a 3.67 ERA and a 5.61 xFIP. They both ranked as below-average units during the second half of the season but got hot at the right time.
Overall, the pitching matchup is a relative coin flip.
Texas has the better position player group, both offensively and defensively. The former is not at all surprising (Texas 4th with a 114 wRC+, Arizona 17th with a 99 wRC+), but the latter potentially is (Diamondbacks ranked 2nd in Outs Above Average and 4th in Defensive Runs Saved; Texas finished 3rd and 7th, respectively).
Evan Carter is incredibly impactful on both sides of the ball:
Texas should be in its more favorable split throughout the series. The Rangers had relatively similar numbers against righties and lefties over the entire season but ranked eighth against righties (112 wRC+) in the second half and fourth in September (121 wRC+), compared to 16th (96 wRC+) and 26th (79 wr+) respectively against southpaws.
Conversely, Arizona featured a predominantly right-handed lineup and was league-average against lefties in September (97 wRC+) compared to 26th against righties (80 wRC+).
As a team, Texas has posted a 124 wRC+ in the playoffs, compared to a 99 wRC+ for Arizona; the Rangers' strikeout rate is 4% lower, and their walk rate is 4% higher.
Both teams have avoided chasing pitches and whiffing at very similar rates. However, the Diamondbacks have allowed opponents to pound the zone (17.4% called-strike rate), while Texas has swung more aggressively at strikes (72.% vs. 65.5%)
I think Arizona will approach Corey Seager (and, to a lesser degree, Evan Carter) like they approached Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber toward the end of the NLCS, pitching around him and making other guys beat them.
As a result, I like Seager to walk in Game 1 (to +115) and may keep betting that throughout the series, depending on how they pitch to him.
I projected the Rangers as -135 favorites (57.5% implied) at home in Game 1, and I would bet Arizona down to +145, at just under a 2% edge compared to my projected line.
Assuming the roof will be closed, I set the total at 7.67 runs and would bet Under 8 to -105.
Sides and Totals for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 1
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+150, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +145)
- Under 8 (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -105)
Prop Bets for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 1
- Nathan Eovaldi, Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -135)
- Zac Gallen, Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+115, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
- Corey Seager, Over 0.5 Walks (+145, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +115)
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