Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane Odds
| Pereira Odds | -105 |
| Gane Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | White House Lawn, Washington DC |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Freedom 250 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Freedom 250 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane prediction for UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC puts the interim heavyweight title on the line at the White House, as Alex Pereira looks to win an unprecedented third title after claiming gold at both middleweight and light heavyweight already in his UFC career.
He's facing Ciryl Gane, whose eye poke to Tom Aspinall forced the creation of the interim title in the first place. Gane has already had a stint with the interim title, but is 0-2-1 in attempts for the undisputed crown, including the no contest with Aspinall.
However, Gane looked good prior to the foul in that fight, and has a tremendous opportunity against Pereira. Not only is Gane a much more natural heavyweight, but Pereira is a fairly one-dimensional striker, a stylistic matchup that has typically served Gane well in the past.
Here's my Pereira vs. Gane pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pereira | Gane | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:04 | 13:30 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 247 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 81" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/07/1987 | 4/12/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.16 | 5.29 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 61% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.50 | 2.33 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.11 | 0.68 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 25% |
| TD Def | 79% | 47% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.6 |
While Gane's 0-2-1 record in title fights stands out, those two losses are the only defeats of his career. They both have also come to all-time great fighters in lineal heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones.
Jones, like Pereira, was coming up from 205lbs for the first time when he faced Gane, as well as coming off of a three-year layoff. Unlike Pereira, Jones is an extremely well-rounded fighter, and immediately used his superior grappling to take the Frenchman down and finish him in the first round.
Where that dynamic gets even more interesting is in the Ngannou fight. Prior to facing Gane, Ngannou had landed just one takedown in 13 UFC fights. "D-1 Ngannou" came into the Gane fight with a significant knee injury that limited his striking, and grounded his former training partner four times, controlling him for over eight minutes of the five-round fight. Overall, Gane has a sub-standard 47% takedown defense in the UFC, and has just one win — a controversial split decision — in a fight where his opponent was able to take him down.
I bring all of this up to say that Pereira, who also has just one previous UFC takedown, could look to switch things up and proactively grapple in this matchup. I don't expect it to be Plan A by any stretch, but the Glover Teixeira-trained BJJ black belt mixing in a takedown or two could open up more opportunities for his striking.
On the positive side for Gane, he's actually a more-than-capable offensive grappler, relying on the element of surprise to provide him opportunities. He won each of his first two UFC fights via submission, and has offensively wrestled in other matchups. Against a theoretically smaller opponent, top control from Gane could be immensely valuable.
Of course, the real appeal to this fight is the potential striking. Both men have were kickboxers before transitioning to MMA, though Pereira at a considerably higher level as a multiple-time Glory Kickboxing champion. Gane is the crisper boxer, as Pereira has a relatively basic boxing game based around straight shots and a check lead hook. However, Pereira is the more well-rounded striker, with his calf kick being an elite weapon that often slows down his opponents in extended fights.
Both men are somewhat defensively sound, but especially Gane, who defends strikes at a 61% clip and is fairly cautious on the feet. Pereira has solid footwork and head movement, but is a bit more willing to press forward looking for finishes, famously to his detriment in his second MMA fight against Israel Adesanya:
However, I expect a measure of caution from Pereira here, as he respects the power posed by a much larger opponent.
The size dynamic is obviously the most interesting angle to consider here. Reports have Pereira walking around north of 250 lbs on fight week, which would put him as slightly heavier than Gane has ever weighed in for a UFC fight. My estimation is he was probably in the 230 lbs range when fighting at light heavyweight, meaning he's carrying an additional 20 or so pounds this time.
On the one hand, not having to suffer through a brutal weight cut should help his cardio and especially durability. The shots landed by Adesanya probably wouldn't finish Pereira had he not gone through an even more brutal weight cut to make 185 lbs. Extreme weight cuts deplete the volume of fluid around the brain, and make fighters far more easier to be knocked out.
The negative view for Pereira is that carrying the extra weight will slow him down, and potentially tax his cardio more than a weight cut. It's impossible to say for sure which scenario holds true until we see him at heavyweight, but at the very least he should be of a similar size to Gane.
Pereira vs. Gane Pick, Prediction
When this fight was initially announced, I grabbed Alex Pereira at +155 odds. Since then, the line has moved to be essentially a pick 'em, which makes this a tough moneyline play given the uncertainty.
My favorite bet is a long shot flier on Pereira to land a single takedown, which is +600 via DraftKings. Pereira could follow the Ngannou plan, and use the element of surprise to catch his opponent off guard, which would also have the added benefit of wearing on Gane in what is potentially a hot and humid outdoors fight.
The other angle I like here is on this fight to go long. It likely correlates with the takedown angle, plus I expect both men to be fairly cautious. Gane isn't a huge power puncher by heavyweight standards, with just one win in less than 2.5 rounds in the UFC, which came in his UFC debut. Since Gane has never been finished via strikes, it's hard to see how either man ends this quickly.
The best line on the over 2.5 rounds is -154 via FanDuel, and I'd take that line to -170 if it continues to creep up, while potentially laddering all the way up to the fight to go to a decision at +172.
Billy's Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds -154 (FanDuel) | Pereira Over 0.5 Takedowns +600 (DraftKings)
