Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov Odds
| Erceg Odds | -108 |
| Temirov Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates |
| Bout Time | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Abu Dhabi with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 25, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The co-main event in Abu Dhabi features a men's flyweight showdown between former UFC title challenger Steve Erceg and Ramazan Temirov.
Erceg, who found himself on a somewhat surprising losing skid post his valiant title effort opposite Alexandre Pantoja, has since bounced back by banking two solid wins, particularly his last one. Temirov, on the other hand, is coming off over a one-year layoff due to a positive drug test that forced the Uzbekistani out of his subsequent bout against Asu Almabaev last summer.
A prospect that many had their eyes on when he made his North American debut a couple of years back, Temirov will attempt to recapture the imagination of his supporters this Saturday.
Check out my preview and prediction for Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov.
Tale of the Tape
| Erceg | Temirov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-4 | 19-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:56 | 8:55 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 63" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/27/1995 | 1/31/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.64 | 4.37 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.07 | 3.93 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.13 | 0.84 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 50% |
| TD Def | 67% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0 |
From a style perspective, this is a battle between a big swinging puncher and a technician who isn't afraid to get wet in the proverbial rain.
In this case, the big swinger is obviously Temirov. Looking like a stout and supercharged version of Zubaira Tukhugov, Temirov has a high-powered karate-boxing game that works both coming forward and off the counter.
Often staging his attacks just outside of range, Temirov will look to explode forward with linear assaults ranging from the body to the head. From feints down low to overhands up high to jabs that set up crosses to the body, Temirov does his best work when boxing off of basics.
Temirov does have insane proprioception with his spinning assaults, but those can really tax his gas tank. Thankfully for Temirov, he's shown an ability to adjust and fight off the backfoot if necessary. I'll be curious to see how Temirov's first-layer takedown defense and athletic scrambles hold up in grappling exchanges, but his counters and blitzes could be live opposite Erceg.
Steadily regaining his confidence after a string of defeats that included a crushing knockout loss to Kai Kara-France, Erceg appeard to finally be showing his old form in his last outing opposite Tim Elliott.
Elliott was able to catch Erceg with the left-sided strikes that seem to plague him at the higher levels, but the Aussie and his corner smartly spotted those holes and were able to adjust and pull away down the stretch via Erceg's patented boxing chops.
Showing an educated lead hand and willingness to sit down on short punches on the inside, Erceg displayed the exact style needed to overcome a wild and wide swinger like Temirov. Erceg, who sports a black belt in jiu-jitsu, will also have an on-paper edge in the submission and transitional grappling department.
Erceg vs. Temirov Pick, Prediction
Despite the oddsmakers opening the Australian as the slight favorite, public money has pushed this to pick'em odds, listing Temirov -113 and Erceg -113 as of this writing.
Considering that I, too, was initially leaning toward Temirov when coming across this matchup, I can understand the love coming in on the product of Uzbekistan after seeing him spark out C.J. Vergara in a similar fashion to how Kara-France did Erceg a couple years back.
But aside from the complete difference in the level of competition, I couldn't help but like Erceg's chances after digging further into the tape. Aside from seeming to get his proverbial groove back, Erceg offers a technical boxing style that could steadily steal the steering wheel of this fight should he both survive and have answers for Temirov's initial storms.
Although Temirov appears to be a hard man to hold down, the technical edge and larger frame of Erceg could also pay some serious dividends should this fight see any extended grappling stanzas. Add in Erceg's aforementioned ability to adjust down the stretch, and this feels like it's either a buy early spot for Temirov or a buy low spot on Erceg. And despite me leaning toward the latter, I do believe that Temirov at +550 to win in Round 1 is worth a glance/small sprinkle.
However, should you like the Erceg side as I do, then the smartest move is probably waiting for the public to tilt the former title challenger to plus money or to bet Erceg live during the first frame.
Live betting not only saves you a potential pre-flop loss in the event of an early Temirov knockout, but will also likely have a brief window to see whether or not Erceg can take the big punches coming his way (as well as whether or not he gets shaken by them).
I'm not sure this betting line gets much better for Erceg, nor am I sure that I'll be able to bet this card live given its earlier start time. So, for that reason, I'll be laying some pre-flop plus money on an alternate round bet so that I don't leave you hanging with the live bet cop out.
Most houses pay the same odds for SGPs involving Erceg and the over, so I'm going with Erceg round 3/decision for the same price.
Dan's Pick: Steve Erceg Live or Steve Erceg Round 3/Decision +130 (FanDuel)
